Ceasefire or cover? How Iran used truce to rearm and prepare for war

Dubai: The ceasefire between the United States and Iran is increasingly being seen as a strategic pause that Tehran has used to rebuild its military capabilities, with media reports and intelligence assessments pointing to active efforts to restore strike power during the lull.

In a major escalation, Iran fired missiles and drones at the UAE on Monday, breaching the ceasefire days after Donald Trump declared hostilities over.

The latest escalation appears to reinforce longstanding concerns voiced by UAE officials. Senior Diplomatic Adviser to the President Dr Anwar Gargash has warned that Iran “cannot be trusted” over arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz following treacherous aggression against its neighbours — a view recent attacks are likely to deepen.

According to NBC News, Iran has accelerated efforts to dig out missiles and munitions buried underground or trapped beneath rubble from US-Israeli strikes, reopening access to launch systems and repositioning assets for potential future use.

US officials told the network the activity appears aimed at rapidly reconstituting the country’s missile and drone capabilities.

Even as Iran rebuilds its missile capability, there are signs it is also testing the limits of the ceasefire. According to Associated Press reporting, Iranian forces have launched cruise missiles, drones and small-boat attacks targeting vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting US forces to respond, including sinking several boats threatening commercial shipping.

The developments suggest the truce is not holding on the ground, even as diplomatic messaging continues.

US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth had signalled such movements earlier, saying Washington was tracking Iranian activity closely. “We know what military assets you are moving and where you are moving them,” he said, adding that Iran was “digging out” missiles and launchers from damaged facilities.

Experts cited in media reports say Iran likely preserved a significant portion of its arsenal through dispersal and concealment — hiding missiles, deploying decoys and spreading launch platforms before and during the war to ensure survivability.

Iran now appears to be executing a long-established military playbook shaped by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — one that prioritises survival, concealment and prolonged confrontation over quick victory.

Rather than relying on conventional strength, the strategy is designed to absorb strikes, disperse assets and rebuild quickly using underground storage, mobile launchers and decentralised command structures. Analysts say this model allows Tehran to retain strike capability even after sustained attacks, turning battlefield losses into temporary setbacks.

What looks like recovery is part of a deliberate effort to regroup and rearm.

The gap between public messaging and intelligence assessments has added to the uncertainty. Donald Trump said Iran had lost “about 82%” of its missiles, while Marco Rubio suggested Tehran retained roughly half its arsenal but had lost production capacity.

However, intelligence cited in media reports indicates Iran may still possess more than half of its ballistic missile inventory, along with significant elements of its air force and naval fleet.

Iranian officials have reinforced that perception with defiant messaging. A lawmaker told Tasnim news agency that missile and drone stockpiles were “sufficient to sustain years of war,” adding that Tehran had “not yet shown our new cards.”

Iran’s negotiating posture has done little to signal urgency for a deal. Even as talks continue, officials have emphasised strength over compromise, with repeated assertions that Tehran retains significant capabilities. Analysts say such positioning can help preserve leverage — and buy time under pressure.

The pattern, analysts say, is not new.

Iran has previously curtailed access for international nuclear inspectors and limited oversight at key facilities, drawing repeated concerns from the International Atomic Energy Agency. Such steps have often coincided with periods of heightened pressure, raising concerns that reduced transparency can provide space to reposition sensitive capabilities.

The current ceasefire, some analysts warn, risks following a similar trajectory — offering breathing room at a time when oversight is limited and military activity is shifting underground.

At the same time, internal dynamics appear to be hardening. Analysts say the IRGC has consolidated influence over wartime decision-making, shaping a posture that emphasises endurance and readiness over compromise.

On the domestic front, authorities have maintained tight controls, including a near-total internet shutdown affecting tens of millions, while state-backed mobilisation campaigns promoting sacrifice and wartime readiness have been amplified.

The ceasefire, in effect, may not be slowing the conflict — but giving Iran the space to rebuild, test responses and recalibrate for the next phase. If the latest attacks are any indication, that next phase may already be taking shape.