Oil prices swing on hopes of diplomatic end to US-Iran war as elections favour Democrats

Daily life in the UAE continues, and oil prices have taken a breather but risks remain at sea, in the air and in energy markets.
US-Iran talks have produced no deal, while midterm election results suggest the Republicans, the party to which US President Donald Trump belongs, are set to lose control over the House and Senate.
Qatar-mediated negotiations have raised hopes that an agreement could improve shipping access and stabilise Middle Eastern exports.
Analysts pointed to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s statement that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had authorised the government to pursue peace talks.
The US has said negotiations continue and there's no decision has been made to launch a renewed attack against Iran.
Wasthington has not ruled out more strikes on Iran and the third carrier strike group, USS Theodore Roosevelt, is currently en route to the US Central Command (CentCom) area of responsibility, while more military hardware are reportedly being moved from the US mainland to the Middle East.
Iran has warned of a wider conflict in the event of a renewed attack by US/Israel.
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Following are the recent updates:
Gulf warning to Iran: The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that some Arab states warned Tehran they could retaliate individually or collectively if their infrastructure is hit. Gulf country nations have reportedly run security drills, including at airports.
UAE position: Presidential adviser Anwar Gargash told the Manama Dialogue the UAE wants diplomacy but is "braced for the worst". He also said Gulf states have strengthened national defenses but have not responded collectively enough.
Qeshm Island: US officials said limited US strikes hit Iranian air-defense systems on Qeshm, the biggest island near Hormuz Strait.
Houthi attacks: The Houthis have kept up attacks on Saudi Arabia, with airports and military sites the main targets. Most of the Houthi claims have not been confirmed by Riyadh. On Nov. 2, the Houthis claimed they launched drones toward Dammam airport, a Jizan early-warning radar and a military transport aircraft at Jizan airport. There was no immediate Saudi confirmation.
Missile intercepted: Saudi air defences intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile launched toward the southern region. Civil defence alerts in Khamis Mushait, Abha, Taif and Najran were later lifted.
Nov. 3 claims: A Saudi-focused site reported Houthi claims of a drone hit on Abha airport and a ballistic missile strike on Khamis Mushait Air Base. There is no independent confirmation of this claim.
Fighting in Yemen: Houthi-affiliated media reported seven people were wounded in Saudi-led coalition air strikes on Hodeidah, while fighting continues in al-Jawf.
Travel warning: The US State Department advisory warns of missile and drone attacks, falling debris and dangers near military and energy facilities in Saudi Arabia.
Diplomacy: Qatar is mediating, but Iran is demanding sanctions relief, an end to the US naval blockade and release of frozen funds. No agreement has been announced.
Flight-tracking data: Open-intel analysts have noted a ramp up of US military cargo flights landing in southern Israel, saying it's "sign" that the US is preparing for a "possible" attack on Iran. There has been no US confirmation of an attack plan.
No decision from Trump: The decision of a military action or pursuit of diplomacy rests with US President Donald Trump. CentCom commander Adm. Brad Cooper has briefed him on options, reportedly a "short, intense campaign".
Further escalation could bring new airspace restrictions, rerouting and cancellations.
Returning carriers: British Airways was due to resume Dubai flights Nov. 3. Lufthansa, SWISS and Eurowings are expected from Nov. 25, and Austrian Airlines from Dec. 12.
Saudi routes: Etihad extended suspensions on Abu Dhabi flights to Riyadh, Jeddah and Dammam through Nov. 5.
Advice: Check your booking with the airline before heading to the airport, and allow extra time.
Tanker attack off Oman: UKMTO reported Tuesday that a tanker was struck by two unidentified projectiles about 14 nautical miles northeast of Lima, hitting the engine room, with no casualties or environmental damage. The notice did not identify the tanker or say where the projectiles came from.
Hormuz traffic: Tracking data showed only five commodity vessels crossed the strait Saturday and none Sunday. Before the war, more than 130 ships a day transited.
Seafarers: India said an Indian sailor died after an attack on the vessel MSV Al Jusufi near Oman.
Costs: War-risk insurance and freight rates could rise, eventually affecting imported goods.
Brent fell nearly 7% Monday (Nov. 2) to about $105.50 on hopes for a US-Iran deal, though it remains far above pre-war levels.
Oil prices slid further on Tuesday (Nov. 3) and Wednesday (Nov. 4), with Brent crude down to $103.00, a 1.68% drop; while Murban stood at $102.20, down 2.98%, per OilPrice.com as of 8.09am in Tokyo on Nov. 4.
The main driver, say OilPrice.com, is a retreat in the geopolitical risk premium: the extra amount buyers pay when war threatens future oil availability.
Qatar said both countries remained committed to mediation, although a senior Iranian official said they were still "far" from an agreement.
Check airline notices before traveling.
Watch UKMTO warnings and Brent for early signs of escalation/de-escalation.
Follow official UAE announcements, not unverified social media.
Keep passports, emergency contacts and booking details easy to reach.
Businesses should review shipping schedules, insurance and supply-chain exposure.
Sources: Gulf News, UKMTO, EconoTimes, AP, Reuters and the WSJ