Dubai gold price drops Dh10 per gram, but still expected to rise in May, June
Dubai gold falls sharply on Monday; analysts still see prices rising in the coming months
Dubai: Gold prices in Dubai opened the week lower, with 24-carat rates dropping by Dh10 per gram on Monday, even as the broader outlook continues to point upward.
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The price of 24K gold fell to Dh546 per gram, down from Dh556 on Sunday. The decline extended across lower purities, with 22-carat gold easing to Dh505.50 per gram from Dh514.75.
The Dh10 drop marks a notable single-day correction after recent elevated levels. The move offers immediate relief for buyers, particularly in a market where per-gram changes quickly impact total purchase costs.
Despite the decline, market expectations remain tilted to the upside. Vandana Bharti, Head of Commodity Research at SMC Global Securities, said gold prices are likely to rise through May and June, supported by seasonal demand, macroeconomic headwinds, currency depreciation and supply constraints.
She expects a correction in July, which could prompt fresh buying ahead of festive and wedding demand.
Gold at a premium
Globally, gold is forming a base, with support seen near $4,520–$4,600 per ounce and potential to move toward $4,800–$4,850, though higher targets remain uncertain. Prices on COMEX are currently trading around $4,400–$4,500.
In India, gold continues to trade at a premium due to currency weakness. Current prices are around ₹1,49,860 per 10 grams, with support at ₹1,42,000–₹1,43,000 and upside projections at ₹1,62,000–₹1,65,000.
Currency movements remain a key factor. A softer US dollar, potentially driven by easing crude oil prices, could provide further support to gold. Lower oil prices tend to reduce pressure on the dollar, which in turn supports bullion.
Long-term demand is also being shaped by central bank activity. According to Deutsche Bank Research Institute, the share of the US dollar in global reserves has declined from around 60% to about 40%, while gold’s share has nearly doubled to around 30% over the past four years.
The shift is being led by emerging market economies, which are increasing gold holdings as a hedge against geopolitical and financial risks.
Against this backdrop, Monday’s Dh10 drop in Dubai appears to be a short-term correction rather than a shift in trend, with attention now on whether buyers step in at lower levels or wait for further declines ahead of the expected mid-year dip.
