Dubai gold drops Dh100 per gram in March — will prices fall again in April?
Prices are still moving up and down — dips may offer better buying chances next month
Dubai: Gold prices in the UAE have shifted sharply over the past month, moving from early March highs to significantly lower levels that are now drawing renewed interest from buyers.
Prices entered a steep correction through mid-March, with 24K dropping into the Dh520–Dh550 range and 22K falling to around Dh500. The move marked a decisive reset after an extended rally.
Analysts say the decline followed heavy profit-taking after gold traded well above its long-term averages, a pattern often seen after strong rallies.
Stable, no clear direction
In the second half of March, the pace of declines slowed. Prices began moving within tighter ranges rather than continuing lower.
Recent trading shows 24K largely between Dh528 and Dh545, while 22K has held between Dh488 and Dh505. The pattern has been uneven, with short-lived rebounds followed by pullbacks, pointing to a market attempting to stabilise rather than trend higher.
Industry experts note that the market is transitioning from a correction phase toward gradual recovery, with mixed global cues keeping momentum uncertain.
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What is driving gold now
Global macro factors continue to dominate price movements.
Gold has come under pressure as rising oil prices fuel inflation concerns, raising expectations that interest rates could stay higher for longer. That environment tends to weigh on bullion, which does not offer a yield.
India-based LKP Securities noted that sentiment remains cautious, with macro triggers still favouring higher interest rates and limiting upside unless there is clearer direction on inflation and geopolitics.
At the same time, geopolitical developments linked to tensions in the Middle East have created intermittent support for gold, triggering short-term rebounds but not sustained rallies.
Gold prices to drop again?
The next leg lower, if it comes, is likely to be driven by the same forces that triggered the recent correction.
If oil prices remain elevated, inflation concerns persist and bond yields stay firm, gold could face renewed pressure. A stronger dollar would reinforce that trend.
Further downside could also emerge if geopolitical risks ease, reducing safe-haven demand. Recent price action suggests that rebounds linked to uncertainty have been short-lived.
That said, the sharp fall earlier in the month has already removed much of the excess from the rally. Any additional declines may be more gradual, with prices drifting lower rather than falling sharply.
When should you buy?
For buyers in Dubai, the current market offers lower prices than earlier in the month, but timing remains key.
Recent trading patterns suggest that buying interest has consistently emerged near the lower end of the range — around Dh530–Dh535 for 24K and Dh490–Dh495 for 22K. Prices have struggled to sustain gains above Dh545 and Dh505 respectively.
An investment analyst in Dubai said a "selective buy-on-dips strategy near stable levels" remains preferable in the current environment.
That approach reflects the nature of the market right now. Prices are not moving in a clear upward trend, which means chasing short-term rebounds carries more risk than waiting for dips.
Gold seen rising long term
Despite the recent decline, some institutions continue to see strong upside over the longer term, which then would make it far more affordable to buy gold now.
US investment bank Wells Fargo has raised its 2026 global gold price target to $6,100 to $6,300 per ounce, up sharply from its previous forecast of $4,500 to $4,700, citing expectations for lower interest rates and gold’s role as a hedge against policy uncertainty.
That longer-term view suggests the recent pullback may not signal the end of the broader trend, even as short-term volatility persists.
What buyers should watch
For now, Dubai gold buyers are navigating a market that is cheaper but still unsettled.
Prices are no longer at peak levels, offering better entry points, but volatility remains high. The next move will depend on how global factors evolve, particularly interest rate expectations, currency strength and geopolitical developments.
Until a clearer trend emerges, the market is likely to remain range-bound, with better opportunities appearing during short-term dips rather than during brief rallies.
