Dubai Airshow 2025: Will Emirates, Etihad, flydubai place aircraft orders?

Dubai: As this year’s Dubai Airshow opens, UAE and other Middle Eastern carriers are showing pragmatism rather than extravagance.

While the event has often been synonymous with mega plane deals, industry leaders and aviation analysts suggest 2025 will be about careful timing and strategic fleet planning over headline-grabbing orders.

“Dubai is normally a widebody show, but most carriers have already addressed their replacement needs,” said Gediminas Ziemelis, chairman of Avia Solutions Group told Gulf News. “Given Airbus and Boeing’s multi-year backlogs, this Airshow will be about securing early delivery slots rather than adding huge new commitments,” he explained.

The approach signals a shift from past editions where Gulf giants such as Emirates and Etihad secured large widebody deals. This year, airlines are instead aiming to lock in positions on constrained production lines as both planemakers battle supply chain delays and engine shortages.

Etihad Airways — long seen as one of the Middle East’s most disciplined carriers — continues to explore new widebody acquisitions, with discussions for Airbus A330s expected to conclude soon, according to a recent Bloomberg report.

The airline’s CEO Antonoaldo Neves has long maintained that Etihad focuses on right-sizing its fleet and partnerships over pursuing flashy large orders. Chief Analyst of StrategicAero Research, Saj Ahmad said, “Etihad is rejuvenated and has the power to buy big if it chooses, but this year feels more like a calibration moment rather than a spending spree.”

Airbus and Boeing’s delivery delays are looming large in executives’ minds. Airlines are split between wanting early delivery assurances and seeking flexibility on aircraft variants as production ramps up slowly.

“Everyone wants to be near the front of the queue,” said Ziemelis. “But lead times mean many will ask for options on the final variant they receive.”

During a media briefing on Friday, Gabriel Semelas, President of Airbus for Africa and the Middle East, acknowledged that production remains under pressure.

“We have a backlog of around 8,500 aircraft,” he said. “We’re ramping up the A350 to rate 12 by 2028 and the A330 to rate five by 2029. The supply chain is improving, but it will take time.”

Semelas added that Middle Eastern demand remains disproportionally high for widebodies—about 42 per cent of future orders—compared with a global average of 20 er cent. That’s driven by the region’s role as an intercontinental transit hub and the recovery of routes such as Dubai–Riyadh and Jeddah–Cairo, among the busiest in the world.

flydubai and Emirates are expected to dominate orders again this year. Bloomberg reports also suggested that flydubai is reportedly weighing a blockbuster order of up to 200 narrowbody jets, with options for 100 more. Sources say Boeing remains the frontrunner, though Airbus has been aggressively courting the airline — a partner it has never previously won.

The airline CEO Ghaith Al Ghaith told Bloomberg that the carrier is “continuously assessing fleet requirements” and remains “in discussions with all major partners.”

If finalised, such a deal would reinforce the Middle East’s growing interest in narrowbody jets, including models like the Airbus A321XLR and the Boeing 737 MAX. These aircraft are well-suited for shorter, high-demand routes or “thin” long-haul markets linking Gulf hubs to new tourist destinations across Africa and South Asia.

High interest rates are also reshaping how airlines fund aircraft. Rather than taking on long-term capital expenditure, more are turning to flexible leasing or so-called ACMI (Aircraft, Crew, Maintenance, Insurance) arrangements.

“Cash is king,” said Ziemelis. “When airlines use ACMI for a maximum of six months a year and around 10 per cent of their fleet, profitability can rise by 2 to 3 per cent. It’s an operational expense, not a long-term debt.”

Ahmad added that while major players like Emirates and Qatar Airways have access to robust financing tools — including Japanese Operating Leases (JOLCOs) — smaller Gulf carriers are relying more on lessors who can offer adaptable terms during market uncertainty.

Despite geopolitical shocks, Middle Eastern aviation continues to expand at pace. Ziemelis pointed to forecasts from Tourism Economics projecting regional tourism spending to surge 50% by 2030, reaching nearly $350 billion annually.

“Total passenger numbers in the Middle East are forecast to hit 466 million in 2025, up nearly 6% year on year,” he added. “Airlines will need added capacity — leased or owned — to keep up.”

Industry veteran John Grant of OAG echoed that sentiment, though with caution. “There’s plenty of ambition, but also realism,” he said. “Fleet juggling and patience will define this Airshow more than record-breaking deals.”

Beyond the aircraft orders, another theme at the 2025 Dubai Airshow is emerging — human capital. “Aviation is built on trust,” said James Randall, Sales Director Middle East at HireRight. “With rapid regional expansion, airlines must ensure robust background screening to minimise operational and reputational risk.”

Randall noted that more than three-quarters of global employers uncovered discrepancies during pre-employment checks in the past year — a sign that due diligence in hiring is becoming as vital to aviation success as fleet strategy itself.

Still, few would completely rule out surprises. As Semelas put it, “Ahead of any airshow, there’s always speculation. Conversations with our customers remain confidential, so the best advice is: wait until Monday — you’ll hear everything.”