Don't expect cheaper flights until after December, say UAE travel agents, despite easing tensions

Dubai: Travellers hoping that easing geopolitical tensions will translate into bargain airfares from the UAE should temper their expectations.

Industry experts warn that ticket prices are unlikely to drop until well after December, with seasonal demand and airline scheduling making any near-term relief impossible.

“We haven’t seen too much of an impact yet—it is too early to see any visible change in travel patterns,” said Sudheesh TP, manager at Deira Travels.

“Airline winter schedules are released four months in advance… Airlines have been working on this for quite some time. A week of geopolitical issues easing won’t show impact immediately.”

The timing mismatch between news cycles and airline operations means that even positive developments on the regional front cannot immediately translate into cheaper seats.

Airlines have already locked in their winter frequencies and pricing strategies, leaving little room for mid-season adjustments.

What travel agents are seeing instead is sustained high fares driven by peak holiday demand. December remains the region's most lucrative travel month, with multiple booking drivers converging simultaneously.

"Right now, we're experiencing Diwali traffic, national day celebrations, and long weekend travel, along with the usual visiting friends and family traffic," Sudheesh explained.

"An easing in geopolitical tensions also brings back consumer confidence. It encourages more people to travel. All of this is pushing demand upward, not downward," he said.

Similarly, Raheesh Babu, COO of online travel company Musafir.com, added that geopolitical factors have merely caused a minor blip in an otherwise robust upward trend.

"Normal seasonal airfares are going up," he explained. "We saw a slight price drop in September and October purely due to geopolitical concerns, but that's just temporary. Demand remains quite robust, with almost all flights full and no signs of passenger fear," Babu explained.

Safeer Mahamood from Smart Travels concurred, describing the current market as simply "back to normal." Yet 'normal' in this context means premium pricing. "Fares are going up only—there are no changes," he said. "December vacations are causing a spike in fares across any destination."

Travel agents stress that fare reductions remain off the table for at least two months. "We don't expect any price reduction until December is over," Safeer stated firmly. "Fares are expected to stay high."

Business travel is particularly strong, with corporate bookings pushing occupancy levels higher.

"We're seeing a lot of business travel, and people are already waiting for the long weekend," Babu noted. The India sector has been particularly affected, with December fares reaching record highs. "India sector fares in December have soared," he added, highlighting the intensity of holiday-season pricing on this key route.

Trade travel is compounding the pressure on fares. Major events including Gitex, Gulf Food Manufacturing, and China's Canton Fair are driving substantial outbound business travel, bringing demand back to pre-2020 levels. "Trade travel has gone up to normal, back to the pre-2020 range," Mahamood said. "That has hiked demand up anyway."

Bookings for December are performing at historically expected levels, suggesting that passenger confidence has already returned despite earlier regional concerns. "The lack of political instability will only encourage more passengers to travel, which is a positive sign," Sudheesh added.

However, next month may offer some relief in route selection rather than pricing. Travellers increasingly seeking easy-visa destinations are turning towards Georgia, Armenia, and Central Asian countries as alternatives to Europe, where Schengen visa appointments remain notoriously difficult to secure.

This shift reflects pragmatic holiday planning rather than cost-cutting measures.

The broader regional picture supports sustained high fares. A recent report by Airports Council International reveals that airfares across Asia-Pacific and the Middle East have surged dramatically since 2019.

The Middle East experienced a 15 per cent jump in the first half of 2025 compared to pre-pandemic levels, with Southeast Asia and Oceania seeing even steeper increases.

Critically, these fare increases are not driven by airport charges, contrary to popular perception. Instead, inflation and reduced airline competition on key routes are the primary culprits. "Airfare variations are largely influenced by inflation and airline competition, not airport charges," the ACI report emphasised.

Stefano Baronci, Director General, ACI Asia-Pacific & Middle East, recommended, "To make air travel more affordable from a consumer perspective, policymakers should focus on liberalising markets such as open skies, market access, and efficient slot policy that can strengthen airline competition while ensuring airports can continue to invest to build capacity to support the growth in the coming years.”  

For UAE travellers, the message is clear: lock in plans now if December travel is essential, but don't expect prices to soften.