Will the latest attacks push the Middle East into full-scale war?

Dubai: The Middle East is once again on edge.

Fresh US strikes on Iranian targets, Tehran’s retaliation and renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have once again raised fears that the Middle East could slide into a full-scale war.

Yet despite the sharp escalation, analysts say the conflict has not crossed the point of no return. Instead, both sides appear to be using military pressure to strengthen their bargaining positions while leaving room for diplomacy—even as the risk of a dangerous miscalculation grows.

One of the strongest indicators is that diplomatic channels have not completely broken down.

Although the June memorandum of understanding has come under severe strain, Oman continues efforts to mediate between Washington and Tehran, and neither side has formally ruled out renewed negotiations.

Chatham House noted that whatever agreement eventually emerges, Iran is likely to rebuild its deterrence around its ability to influence the Strait of Hormuz rather than seek outright military victory.

Military actions also suggest both sides are calibrating their responses.

The United States has intensified air strikes and economic pressure but has not launched a ground invasion of Iran. Tehran has retaliated through missiles, drones and attacks on shipping but has not attempted to permanently close the Strait of Hormuz or expand attacks across every Gulf state simultaneously.

Military experts say reopening the Strait of Hormuz by force would require far more than air strikes.

According to the Associated Press, Iran has spent decades preparing asymmetric defences including dispersed missile systems, drones and naval capabilities, making any attempt to fully secure the waterway costly and potentially requiring a much larger US military commitment.

At the same time, Iran understands that a prolonged conventional war against the United States would carry enormous military and economic costs.

That leaves both sides relying on pressure rather than decisive victory.

Around one-fifth of the world’s oil normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Every attack on shipping immediately affects freight costs, insurance premiums and energy prices.

Reuters said oil markets may be underestimating the danger because traders appear to believe neither Washington nor Tehran actually wants a wider war.

But it warned that brinkmanship and miscalculation remain serious risks, particularly after the collapse of the ceasefire framework.

That does not mean the region is safe.

The Associated Press warned that each new exchange increases the possibility that events spiral beyond the intentions of either government. A strike causing heavy civilian casualties, a direct clash between US and Iranian naval forces or an attack on major Gulf energy infrastructure could rapidly transform a contained confrontation into a regional conflict.

So, how close is the Middle East to all-out war?

Closer than it has been since the fighting resumed — but not there yet.

For now, Washington and Tehran appear to be balancing military pressure with diplomatic signalling, each seeking greater leverage before any future negotiations. But with daily strikes, rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the ceasefire framework under severe strain, the margin for error is shrinking.

As Reuters observed, the current standoff is increasingly defined not only by confrontation but by the danger that a single miscalculation could trigger the wider conflict both sides have so far avoided.