Strait of Hormuz threat remains severe: 84 incidents, low traffic and tanker attack
US-Iran tensions: Global shipping reroutes as Hormuz crisis widens to other waterways
The security situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains dangerous, with maritime authorities saying a deliberate hostile attack is "highly likely" in the days ahead — a warning that comes right after another tanker was targeted in the waterway.
The latest assessment from the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) follows an attack on a tanker on August 8, logged by UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) as incident 108-26. It's the latest in a string of confirmed incidents that has now climbed to 84 since March 1.
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Ship traffic has all but dried up
One of the clearest signs of how serious the situation has become: tanker traffic through the Strait has collapsed.
Independent tracking data cited by JMIC shows tanker movements in both directions have dropped to single digits.
Between August 6 and 8, only 40 US-facilitated transits were recorded through the Strait — a fraction of the roughly 138 vessels a day that typically passed through in 2025. On August 8 alone, just eight cargo vessels made the crossing (six heading east, two west), along with two tankers.
Traffic trends
Strait of Hormuz
Historical average: About 138 vessels a day based on 2025 figures.
40 US-facilitated transits were recorded between August 6 and 8.
Bab El Mandeb
Historical average: About 61 vessels a day based on 2023 figures.
82 vessel transits were recorded between August 6 and 8.
The figures are based on different tracking sources. Hormuz data includes US-facilitated transits, while Bab El Mandeb figures cover cargo vessels above 1,000 deadweight tonnes.
Iran's military presence, and the mine threat
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) continues to actively monitor and hail merchant vessels passing through the area, using drone overflights and targeted surveillance, according to JMIC.
Near the southern Omani approaches — around Limah, Khasab and Kumzar — there have also been continued projectile strikes and near-miss explosions.
Adding to the danger, JMIC is warning that drifting or uncharted mines remain a risk in and around the Strait's shipping lanes. On top of that, GPS and navigation signal interference (GNSS disruption) is continuing across the Strait, the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Gulf, making safe passage even harder.
An ADNOC tanker was hit
The threat isn't abstract — it's already playing out. One of ADNOC's own vessels was attacked in the Strait early on August 8.
No one on board was hurt, and a fire that broke out during the attack was put out. The vessel was able to complete its journey and returned safely to Fujairah. UKMTO has logged the incident as an attack involving an unidentified tanker.
The US Navy is stepping up enforcement
With tensions running high, the US military has ramped up its presence in the Gulf of Oman as part of ongoing blockade enforcement.
According to US Central Command, as of August 9:
53 commercial vessels have been redirected
2 vessels have been disabled
2 vessels have been boarded for compliance checks
Ships in the area are being told to respond quickly to military radio queries and to keep their AIS tracking systems switched on — unless there's a genuine security reason not to.
It's not just Hormuz — other routes are under pressure too
The Strait of Hormuz isn't the only chokepoint causing concern. JMIC's broader assessment flags several other waterways as facing elevated risk.
Regional maritime threat levels
Strait of Hormuz — Severe: Recent Iranian attacks; hostile action considered highly likely. Mine and navigation risks persist.
Gulf of Oman — Substantial: Strong possibility of attack; US naval enforcement and electronic interference continue.
Gulf of Aden — Substantial: Piracy risks and Houthi activity remain a concern.
Bab el-Mandeb/Southern Red Sea — Substantial: Houthi attacks on merchant shipping keep the threat elevated.
Arabian Gulf — Moderate: Navigation interference and residual attack risks persist.
Arabian Sea — Moderate: Conflict-linked risks remain, but no recent attacks reported.
Northern Red Sea/Suez Canal — Moderate: Operations remain normal, but GNSS/electronic interference is possible.
Somali Coast/Somali Basin — Moderate: Piracy remains possible, despite monsoon conditions.
Eastern Mediterranean — Low: No persistent targeting, though local navigation interference continues.
What to expect over the next few days
JMIC expects commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to remain reduced over the next 24 to 48 hours.
Ships travelling with AIS switched on may receive radio calls instructing them to divert towards the northern Iranian-controlled route.
Vessels should also expect a strong US naval presence, persistent IRGC monitoring, increased radio hails and possible visit-and-search checks.
JMIC said navigation interference and mine-related risks would continue to require heightened vigilance from vessels operating in and around the Strait.
