Trump vs Iran: A battle of two clocks over Hormuz

Dubai: The struggle over the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly becoming a contest not just of military power, but of time.

US President Donald Trump is betting that Iran’s economy cannot indefinitely withstand sanctions, a maritime blockade and months of military pressure.

Iran appears to be making the opposite calculation: That Trump cannot indefinitely withstand high energy prices, dwindling military resources and growing political pressure at home.

The question increasingly hanging over the conflict is simple: Who blinks first?

After nearly six months of conflict, analysts believe Tehran has concluded that Washington wants an exit.

CNN political and national security analyst David Sanger said Iran’s leaders sense that Trump wants a way out and that the US is “running out of munitions,” options and patience.

“The war does not poll very well, even among Republicans,” Sanger said.

That perception could help explain why Tehran has little incentive to quickly accept a compromise over Hormuz.

Instead, Iran has hardened its conditions for fully reopening the strait, demanding measures including an end to the US maritime blockade, withdrawal of American forces from the region, compensation for the war and sanctions relief.

The tougher the demands, the greater the risk that negotiations collapse.

But Tehran may believe Trump needs an agreement more urgently than it does.

There is also another clock running.

CNN reported that Trump’s top general has privately made clear to other administration officials that Washington needs an off-ramp from the Iran conflict.

Retired US Air Force Colonel Cedric Leighton told CNN that shortages of key defensive munitions, including missiles used by Patriot and Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) systems, could affect America’s ability to sustain military operations.

That does not mean the United States is incapable of continuing the conflict.

But a prolonged war forces Washington to consider how long it wants to expend expensive weapons and military resources on Iran while maintaining commitments elsewhere.

Tehran knows that.

Potentially more important is November.

The US midterm elections give Trump a political timetable that Iran does not share.

CNN draws a striking comparison with the 1979-81 Iran hostage crisis.

Then, Iran held 52 Americans for 444 days, creating an enormous political problem for President Jimmy Carter as he sought reelection in 1980.

Forty-six years later, Iran does not hold American hostages.

But it has leverage over something capable of reaching millions of American households: the Strait of Hormuz.

With average US petrol prices back above $4 a gallon, according to AAA figures cited by CNN, disruption to one of the world’s most important energy routes has become a domestic political problem for Trump.

And that creates a paradox for Washington.

US officials repeatedly argue that economic pressure will eventually force Tehran to compromise.

But by stressing that reopening Hormuz would quickly relieve pressure on energy prices, Washington is simultaneously signalling just how valuable the strait has become as Iranian leverage.

Tehran’s strategy is hardly risk-free.

Iran must withstand the effects of sanctions, the US blockade and damage inflicted during months of conflict.

Trump told Axios that Washington is now waiting for the economic impact of the blockade to bite.

“We are low-keying it,” Trump said. “We are only semi-negotiating with them.”

Iran could therefore badly miscalculate if it assumes Trump will keep negotiating regardless of its demands. He could instead lose patience and return to major military operations.

That would leave both sides confronting the same dangerous choice.

Washington must decide how long it can tolerate the economic and political costs of a disrupted Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran must decide how long it can absorb US economic and military pressure.

For all America’s overwhelming conventional military superiority, time may therefore have become Iran’s most important source of leverage.

The contest over Hormuz is increasingly about which side believes the other’s clock will run out first.