Weather forecast: How do March 2026 heavy rains compare to April 2024?

Dubai: UAE residents experienced one of the most active weather spells in recent memory this week, as a surface low-pressure system combined with an upper-air low-pressure trough moved across the region. The National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) said the combination increased cloud formation and the probability of convective rainfall over scattered areas, with conditions forecast to persist until Friday, March 27.

Monday, March 23 produced the most significant single-day readings of the weather event. According to the NCM:

On Tuesday, March 24, the NCM's top five readings shifted to coastal and island stations:

The lowest temperature recorded during the weather spell was 12.4°C at Jebel Jais in Ras Al Khaimah.

The numbers from March 2026, while significant for the time of year, remain well below what the country experienced on April 16, 2024. The NCM confirmed that Khatm Al Shakla in Al Ain recorded 254 millimetres of rainfall in less than 24 hours during that event, a figure that exceeded any rainfall recorded since the UAE began systematic climate monitoring in 1949.

The April 2024 event shattered all previous benchmarks, bringing normal life to a halt as the nation dealt with high water levels. The March 2026 peak of 93.3mm at Al Manama, while near-historic for March, is roughly a third of what Khatm Al Shakla received in a single day two years ago.

Researchers at NYU Abu Dhabi's Mubadala Arabian Centre for Climate and Environmental Sciences established that unusually warm Arabian Sea waters fundamentally altered where and how intensely the rain fell during the April 2024 event, redirecting and intensifying rainfall directly over the UAE rather than over the Zagros Mountains to the north. The March 2026 system, by contrast, has been attributed by the NCM to a conventional low-pressure system moving through the region during the country's active rainfall season.

The Ministry of Interior urged residents to avoid unnecessary travel, reduce driving speeds, maintain safe distances between vehicles, and stay away from areas prone to water accumulation. The National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority (NCEMA) reassured the public that thunder sounds associated with the system are a normal feature of such weather events, and that any alerts would be issued promptly through the National Early Warning System.

Rainfall of varying intensity is forecast to continue across different parts of the country through Friday, March 27, with conditions expected to improve over the weekend.