Why the UAE saw its heaviest rainfall in April 2024, highest recorded in 75 years?

Dubai: On April 16, 2024, the UAE experienced its most intense rainfall in 75 years, and now scientists have uncovered a critical piece of the puzzle. Unusually warm waters in the Arabian Sea acted as fuel for the storm system, transforming what might have been ordinary rainfall into the historic flood that submerged emirates across the nation.

Researchers at NYU Abu Dhabi's Mubadala Arabian Centre for Climate and Environmental Sciences (Mubadala ACCESS) have demonstrated that elevated sea surface temperatures didn't just contribute to the extreme weather, they fundamentally altered where and how intensely the rain fell across the Emirates.

The study reveals that as the weather system tracked across the region, it pulled vast amounts of moisture from the unusually warm Arabian Sea. This atmospheric moisture loading intensified thunderstorm development, ultimately unleashing torrential downpours across Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Al Ain.

Using advanced numerical modeling combined with satellite data, the research team ran a revealing comparison. Under normal ocean temperature conditions, their analysis shows much of the precipitation would have fallen over the Zagros Mountains to the north. Instead, the warmer seas redirected and intensified rainfall directly over the UAE.

"What we're seeing is how ocean conditions can fundamentally reshape regional weather patterns," explained Basit Khan, the study's lead author and researcher at Mubadala ACCESS. "The warmer waters increased atmospheric moisture in the critical days before April 16, creating conditions for exceptionally intense convective storms over the Arabian Gulf region."

The April 2024 event shattered all previous benchmarks. The National Centre of Meteorology confirmed that Khatm Al Shakla in Al Ain recorded 254 millimeters of rainfall in less than 24 hours, a staggering figure for one of the world's most arid regions. The flood exceeded any rainfall recorded since the UAE began systematic climate monitoring in 1949.

The scale of disruption was unprecedented. Roads transformed into rivers, homes and businesses flooded, and normal life ground to a halt as the nation grappled with water levels it was never designed to handle.

Beyond documenting what happened, the research offers crucial insights for the future. Understanding how ocean-atmosphere interactions influence regional weather systems could significantly enhance forecasting capabilities and emergency preparedness across the Gulf.

"This knowledge is essential for developing robust forecasting tools and supporting evidence-based decision-making," said Professor Olivier Pauluis, Co-Principal Investigator of Mubadala ACCESS and Professor of Mathematics at NYU Abu Dhabi. "Our work adds to the scientific understanding of how large-scale environmental processes affect regional weather patterns."

The research team, which included Subrota Halder, Zouhair Lachkar, Francesco Paparella, and Pauluis alongside Khan, emphasises that their findings underscore the need for continued investment in regional climate research.

As ocean temperatures continue to fluctuate and potentially warm due to global climate trends, understanding these dynamics becomes increasingly critical for the UAE and neighbouring countries. The 2024 event played a key role in replenishing groundwater reserves and boosting annual rainfall averages.

The study represents a significant step toward more accurate weather prediction models tailored to the Gulf's unique climate conditions, knowledge that could prove invaluable as the region navigates an uncertain climatic future.