Why is April so hot in UAE right now? How long will it last? Summer weather forecast explained

Dubai: Across the UAE, temperatures have surged well above what is typical for April, catching many residents off guard after weeks of surprisingly mild and even cool weather. The mercury has already broken 44°C in parts of the country this week and the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) has signalled the heat is not done climbing just yet.

So what exactly is going on? And more importantly: when does it ease up?

Nationwide, the NCM forecasts temperatures ranging between 23°C and 41°C on Friday, April 24. But those numbers don't tell the full story. The picture varies dramatically depending on where you are in the country.

Dubai: Highs of up to 36°C, with a low of around 23°C overnight. AccuWeather's RealFeel for Dubai today sits at 35°C (95°F), with humidity pushing the perceived temperature even higher in coastal zones.

Abu Dhabi: The capital is among the warmest coastal cities today, with highs reaching 38°C, reflecting its more southerly and inland-facing position.

Sharjah: Closely tracking Dubai at around 36–37°C during peak afternoon hours.

Al Ain: The inland garden city, historically one of the UAE's hotter spots, has recorded sharp fluctuations this week, with peaks nudging 40°C in the afternoon.

Ras Al Khaimah and Fujairah (East Coast): More temperate conditions due to coastal breezes, generally in the 33–35°C range.

Al Dhafra Region (Abu Dhabi's western interior): The country's consistent heat champion. On April 22, the town of Mezaira recorded a staggering 44°C, according to the NCM, the highest temperature logged in the UAE this week. A day earlier, on April 21, the nearby station of Owtaid hit 42.9°C at 2pm.

April is traditionally a transitional month in the UAE, neither the pleasant cool of winter nor the relentless furnace of summer. Average highs at this time of year typically hover between 32°C and 34°C along the coasts and 34°C to 36°C inland. So readings pushing past 40°C represent a notable departure from the norm.

Several factors are converging to push temperatures higher than usual:

1. The Sarrayat season is in full swing

The UAE is currently in what meteorologists and locals know as the Sarrayat season, a transitional atmospheric window that typically runs from mid-March through early May. This period is defined by sharp and unpredictable weather swings: one day delivering unusually cool breezes and cloud cover, the next seeing the thermometer leap several degrees in hours. This year has been an example, with some coastal cities staying below 30°C in early April before temperatures vaulted past 40°C within days.

According to Ibrahim Al Jarwan, Chairman of the Emirates Astronomical Society and a member of the Arab Union for Astronomy and Space Sciences, the pattern this year signals that the season is shifting decisively out of spring. "This is part of the transitional phase," Al Jarwan noted, explaining that such fluctuations are characteristic of the period, one that can occasionally extend into early May depending on the broader regional weather system.

2. A low-pressure system over the Arabian Peninsula

A low-pressure system centred over central Arabia, particularly over parts of Saudi Arabia, has been generating atmospheric instability across the region. While the UAE has not been in the direct path of the worst disruptions, the indirect effects elevated temperatures, cloud formation, and in some areas, brief bursts of dust and light rain have been noticeable this week. This is the same system that produced the NCM-issued weather alert covering April 21 through April 23 for parts of Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Fujairah.

3. The sun is moving north

Every day, the sun's apparent position creeps closer to the Tropic of Cancer, which sits almost directly above the UAE. The resulting increase in solar radiation strikes the landscape at an ever-more-direct angle, heating the ground rapidly and sending afternoon temperatures soaring, especially over low-albedo (Dark desert surfaces, like the sand dunes found in Al Dhafra, tend to absorb more sunlight instead of reflecting it, which causes the ground to heat up more intensely) desert surfaces like the sand dunes of Al Dhafra and the rock formations of Al Ain.

According to AccuWeather's monthly forecast for Dubai, temperatures are on a clear upward trajectory through the remainder of April. After today's high of around 35°C, the forecast points to 36°C on April 25 and a noticeable jump to 36–37°C by April 26–27, before a brief dip to around 33–34°C late next week.

The NCM's five-day bulletin, issued this week, confirms this trend. The authority has forecast generally stable weather from April 24 through April 28, with conditions expected to be fair to partly cloudy on most days. Crucially, the NCM notes that temperatures are set to rise progressively early next week, with partly cloudy to cloudy conditions possible, particularly in northern areas. Winds will be light to moderate, freshening at times and kicking up blowing dust, while sea conditions will remain slight to moderate in the Arabian Gulf.

While 'stable' might sound reassuring, it simply means fewer dramatic weather events, not relief from the heat. Clear skies and low wind speeds are precisely the conditions that allow afternoon temperatures to climb unchecked. Without cloud cover to deflect radiation or a sea breeze to moderate coastal temperatures, the feel of the day becomes increasingly punishing, particularly between noon and 4pm.

Outdoor workers, children, and those with respiratory conditions should limit exposure during peak heat hours, regardless of whether the sky looks calm and clear.

According to Al Jarwan and meteorologists, the pivotal shift arrives from mid-May onwards, when the Indian monsoon low-pressure system, a powerful climatic engine that dominates the broader region begins to intensify. This system draws vast plumes of hot, increasingly humid air masses into the Gulf, pushing temperatures steadily higher across the UAE. Once established, it becomes the dominant force shaping weather across the region for months.

By this point, expect temperatures to consistently exceed 40°C across most of the country. Southern and deep-inland areas, particularly the Al Dhafra region and the desert stretches near Al Ain and Sweihan, could see peak readings approaching 50°C during the height of summer. In 2024, the NCM confirmed that parts of the UAE surpassed 50°C at peak, a benchmark the country has faced with during the hottest Julys in recent memory.

The astronomical calendar marks the official start of summer on June 21, 2026, the summer solstice, when the UAE experiences its longest day (approximately 13 hours and 43 minutes of daylight). But residents know the heat tends to announce itself well ahead of that date. By June, afternoon temperatures across Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Sharjah are typically already hovering between 41°C and 43°C, with nights offering only partial respite in the 26–29°C range.

There is an additional wildcard on the horizon. Meteorological agencies, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), have flagged a 61 per cent chance of El Nino developing between May and July 2026, with the event expected to peak during the autumn and early winter of 2026–2027.

El Nino conditions typically amplify existing temperature trends across the Gulf, bringing warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, more intense heat, and potential for heavier-than-normal rainfall in certain seasons. If the forecast materialises, summer 2026 could be among the more intense on record for the UAE, raising the stakes for heat safety, energy demand, and outdoor work regulations.

The heat this week, while elevated, is still technically within the manageable end of the UAE's annual spectrum. But it is a useful reminder to:

Stay hydrated, drink water throughout the day, even if you don't feel thirsty.

Avoid outdoor activity between noon and 3pm, especially for outdoor labourers protected under the Ministry of Human Resources' summer working hours regulations.

Monitor official NCM channels for real-time alerts, particularly regarding dust storms, which can reduce visibility rapidly.