UAE weather: Why is autumn still so hot? El Nino, rain and hail explained

Dubai: October normally brings the first real break from the summer heat in the UAE. The long summer loosens its grip, evenings turn pleasant and residents start dusting off plans for beach walks and desert camping. This year, autumn seems to have missed its cue.

Two weeks into what should be a cooling month, people across the country are still running the air conditioning around the clock, and the weather has become the talk of offices, school runs and family WhatsApp groups. The heat is not imagined. Recent maximum temperatures across the country have ranged between 37°C and 43°C, with some areas experiencing temperatures 4°C higher than usual. For context, the UAE’s average daily temperature in October stands at 29.7°C, according to the NCM’s latest monthly weather summary.

Inland areas have taken the brunt of it. On Saturday, temperatures reached 41.6°C in Sweihan, even as rain fell elsewhere in the country. The National Centre of Meteorology had flagged the warm spell early, saying at the start of the month that temperatures will remain high, particularly inland, where maximums are forecast to range from 39°C to 44°C. Coastal and northern areas have been milder but still warm, with forecasts last week of 35°C in Ajman and 34°C in Fujairah.

Much of the attention has turned to El Nino. The NCM has issued a climate update on the weather pattern, which has been forecast to be the strongest on record. Instead of the predictable October drop into comfortable autumn weather, the phenomenon is trapping a blanket of high pressure over the Arabian Peninsula, driving temperatures well above seasonal averages.

Scientists added a note of caution, saying El Niño’s impact on UAE and Gulf temperatures was “relatively weak” and pointing out that background climate warming, Gulf and Arabian Sea temperatures, and regional circulation will be at least as important. In other words, El Niño is part of the story, but not all of it.

The humidity has not helped. Moisture carried inland from the Arabian Gulf, combined with clear skies, light winds and falling overnight temperatures, creates the conditions for high humidity, according to the National Centre of Meteorology. The NCM lists the month’s average maximum relative humidity at about 78 per cent, which explains the damp, sticky mornings and patches of fog many drivers have woken up to.

The heat has come with an unusual companion: rain. For more than a week, towering clouds have built up over the east of the country most afternoons, bringing downpours and hail to mountain and inland areas.

On Thursday, October 15, heavy rain and hail fell over parts of Sharjah, with intense showers in Al Dhaid, Washah and Mleiha. The NCM issued a flash flood alert from 2pm to 7pm over some mountain areas. A day later, storms moved across Al Ain, Hatta, Kalba and Ras Al Khaimah, and Al Aamerah recorded heavy rainfall accompanied by hail, with a local weather station measuring 7.4 millimetres of rain.

The unsettled weather returned on Monday. Hail fell on Margham in Dubai, while rain was reported in Al Ajili and on Khor Fakkan Road, and hail was also seen in parts of Fujairah including Masafi. The National Centre of Meteorology issued an alert over strong winds expected to reach speeds of up to 50kph in some coastal and inland areas, lifting dust up into the skies and hampering visibility. Police in Abu Dhabi have urged motorists to exercise caution and comply with changing speed limits displayed on electronic road signs.

More of the same is on the way. The UAE could experience five consecutive days of rainfall in some areas from Sunday, October 18, to Thursday, October 22, with winds reaching 50 km/h and early morning fog or mist, according to the National Centre of Meteorology. The NCM’s online weather map shows that Ras Al Khaimah, Fujairah and Al Ain are set to be hit by heavy rain until Wednesday. Clouds are expected to form in the east and spread into some inland and western areas during the afternoon, bringing possible rainfall.

There is some comfort in the calendar. Temperatures typically decline more noticeably during the second half of the month, and the country is now entering Al Wasm, a season beginning in mid-October and traditionally associated with milder temperatures and increased chances of rainfall.

The wetter pattern may also stick around. October and November are expected to feel the peak of the El Nino cycle, with higher rainfall than usual also expected, including severe bouts that could raise the risk of flooding, although this is not guaranteed. The NCM projects a 96 per cent probability that these potentially volatile conditions will persist through to March 2027.

For now, residents are advised to follow NCM alerts, stay away from wadis during rain and take extra care on the roads when clouds roll in. The cooler days are coming. They are just taking a little longer than usual this year.