US-Iran conflict: What UAE residents need to know today, Sept. 11

UAE airports remain open and major flights are operating, though the regional security environment remains a challenge.

The immediate risks for residents are flight changes, higher fuel and transport costs, shipping-related price pressures and the possibility of further escalation around Hormuz.

The US-Iran war has widened into a broader fight over Gulf and Red Sea shipping, Saudi oil infrastructure and American military bases.

The biggest development for the region today is the growing possibility that the conflict is no longer confined to the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran and its allies are now applying pressure on both ends of the Arabian Peninsula — around Hormuz in the east and Bab al-Mandab in the west — while Saudi Arabia is coming under increasingly heavy Houthi missile and drone attacks.

Brent crude has moved above $108/barrel, and Reuters reported Thursday that only seven vessels transited Hormuz on Wednesday, compared with a 10-day average of 14. 

At the same time, Saudi oil shipments through the Red Sea port of Yanbu have recovered to about 3.7 million barrels per day, highlighting the importance of the kingdom's alternative route around Hormuz.

Former Iranian presidents Mohammad Khatami and Hassan Rouhani have publicly departed from Tehran's increasingly hardline wartime rhetoric.

Iran International reported that Khatami has spoken of an “honourable peace”, while Rouhani has called for a “dignified end” to the conflict and argued that the wishes of the Iranian people should be considered. Rouhani's comments are significant because they raise the politically sensitive question of whether Iran's continued confrontation with the US has sufficient public support.

The intervention does not mean Iran has changed its official war policy. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei retains ultimate authority over major national-security decisions. But the remarks indicate growing debate inside Iran as sanctions, the US blockade and the disruption of oil exports put additional pressure on the economy.

The maritime threat remains: Four unidentified projectiles reportedly struck two vessels near Khasab, Oman, on Thursday, with one vessel catching fire. The incidents occurred only a few nautical miles from Khasab, at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz.

The attacker has not been established. The location is significant: Khasab sits on Oman's Musandam Peninsula, directly overlooking the Strait of Hormuz.

The incidents follow a series of attacks and disabling-fire incidents involving commercial shipping in and around the Gulf and Gulf of Oman.

The risk is no longer simply about ships being delayed. Commercial vessels are increasingly operating in an active conflict zone.

US officials believe hundreds of IRGC officers are currently in Yemen working alongside the Houthis, with the ultimate objective of helping shut the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, CNN reported.

That claim has not been independently verified, but it comes amid growing evidence of Iranian military assistance to the Houthis.

Reuters reported that Iranian weapons and strategic advice helped the Houthis capture Mokha and that sources said senior IRGC officers played a role in directing the offensive. Iran denies directly controlling the Houthis.

The Houthis' capture of Mokha puts them closer to Bab al-Mandab, the maritime chokepoint linking the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

Iranian strikes reportedly damaged US military aircraft at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, according to reports cited by Iran International and other media.

The reports say several US aircraft were damaged during an Iranian attack overnight. A Daily Beast report said eight F-15s suffered partial damage and an A-10 was seriously damaged, although those details have not been independently confirmed by the US military.

The reported attack is important because it demonstrates that Iran's response is not limited to the Gulf. US forces across the region — including aircraft, bases and naval forces — remain potential targets.

That raises the risk of further US retaliation and makes Gulf states increasingly concerned about becoming caught between the two sides.

Reports and satellite-based observations are raising concerns that Yemen's Houthis may have struck Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline, also known as Petroline.

The reported fire is significant because Petroline carries Saudi crude from the Eastern Province to Yanbu on the Red Sea, allowing the kingdom to bypass Hormuz. 

This remains a developing report. Satellite fire detections can establish that an intense fire occurred but do not, by themselves, establish that the pipeline was hit or identify the attacker. The Houthis have previously claimed attacks against Saudi oil infrastructure, including the East-West pipeline.

The Houthis have now captured Mokha, a strategic Red Sea port, and advanced toward the Hanish Islands. Reuters said the offensive could threaten Saudi Arabia's Red Sea oil-export infrastructure, including Yanbu.

If Saudi Arabia's alternative oil-export infrastructure is also threatened, the region would have fewer ways to compensate for disruption through Hormuz.

This is one of the most dangerous developments in the latest phase of the war. Iran has repeatedly launched missiles toward US naval forces operating around Hormuz.

Reuters reported that Iran attacked 10 vessels after the US destroyed five Iranian oil tankers. The significance is not simply about  numbers.

Iran appears to be trying to demonstrate that US warships operating near Iranian waters cannot operate without risk, while simultaneously making the American Navy spend expensive interceptors against Iranian missiles.

Recent reports describe Iranian missiles using manoeuvrability or trajectory-changing technology, making them harder to intercept. Iran has also been extolling the rebuilding of its missile-production capability.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Tehran is again assembling ballistic missiles at underground facilities despite earlier US and Israeli strikes against its missile infrastructure.

The closer the Iranian launch points are to US naval forces, the less warning time American ships have.

UAE commercial flights are operating at near normal levels, though travellers should expect continuing operational challenges, delays and rerouting.

Available flight-tracking data show scheduled Etihad services continuing to operate on major routes including Abu Dhabi–Washington, Abu Dhabi–Sydney, Abu Dhabi–Riyadh and Abu Dhabi–Muscat on Sept. 11. 

The regional airspace situation, however, remains fluid.

The US Treasury's latest sanctions against all remaining Iranian airlines could further affect regional aviation.

The measures also targeted companies accused of supporting Iranian aviation and suspended authorisations covering certain flights into Iran using US-origin aircraft. The measures could affect air traffic linking Iran with regional hubs.

The most consequential development to watch today is whether the conflict spreads from Iranian attacks on shipping and US forces to confirmed strikes on Saudi Arabia's oil-export infrastructure — and whether the Houthis move closer to controlling Bab al-Mandab.