Dubai gold price inches toward Dh500 after traders price in 80% Fed cut chance

Dubai gold edges close to Dh500 as traders lift rate-cut bets on weak US economic signals

Last updated: November 25, 2025 | 08:07

Nivetha Dayanand, Assistant Business Editor

2 MIN READ

Gold, silver prices drop on MCX after Fed rate cut

Dubai: Dubai’s gold prices picked up on Tuesday morning, with the 24K rate rising to Dh498.75 from Dh495 a day earlier. The 22K category followed the same course, moving to Dh461.75 compared with Dh458.50 on Monday. The gains come as global bullion markets respond to rising expectations of an interest-rate cut at the US Federal Reserve’s December meeting. (Check latest UAE gold prices here, alongside prices in Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and India.)

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Tight trading band through November

The month has been shaped by a relatively narrow price range. After touching Dh504.75 for 24K on November 12, local rates have gradually eased, reflecting a softer global tone. The lower end of the month was reached on November 4, when 24K dipped to Dh475.25. That movement followed a global retracement from October’s record highs.

Gold has been in a consolidation phase since climbing above $4,380 an ounce last month. Even with the recent cooling, it remains up about 56% this year, supported by persistent geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over the fiscal health of major economies.

Traders lean toward a December rate cut

The latest rise in bullion was driven by renewed confidence that the Fed is prepared to ease policy at its next meeting. “A near-term cut remains a possibility,” New York Fed President John Williams said last Friday, giving markets a boost. He was followed on Monday by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who added momentum when he indicated support for a cut next month.

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Swap traders now see close to an 80% likelihood that policymakers will deliver another reduction at the December 9–10 meeting. The Fed has already lowered rates twice this year, in September and October, but officials remain divided on whether more easing is justified.

Bullion tends to benefit in a lower rate environment since it pays no interest and becomes more attractive when yields fall.

Markets watch delayed economic data

This week’s data slate carries added weight due to reporting delays caused by the US government shutdown. September retail sales and producer-price figures are due on Tuesday, with jobless claims scheduled for Wednesday. Traders will be looking for clues on consumer resilience and labour-market momentum at a time when the Fed must rely on dated indicators.

Retail numbers are expected to show moderation, reflecting pressure on households from elevated prices. Jobless claims will be watched more closely than usual, as payroll data remains unavailable.

Nivetha DayanandAssistant Business Editor

Nivetha Dayanand is Assistant Business Editor at Gulf News, covering aviation, financial markets and commodities. A business and financial journalist with a strong interest in multimedia storytelling, she regularly takes complex financial and economic subjects beyond the written word, producing explainer videos that make them easier for a wider audience to understand. Nivetha has interviewed senior policymakers, business leaders and global financial figures both on and off camera. Her past guests include UAE Minister of Economy and Tourism Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri, Khaled bin Alwaleed Al Saud, a member of the House of Saud and the founder and CEO of KBW Ventures, Jihad Azour, Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund and Indian ministers Hardeep Singh Puri and N. Chandrababu Naidu. She has also hosted and moderated panels, conferences and awards shows, bringing her newsroom experience to live conversations on business, finance and the economy. An Erasmus Mundus journalism alum, Nivetha is drawn to stories that affect people directly and to reporting that gives a platform to voices that might otherwise go unheard. She was among the first journalists to speak to Petrofac employees in the UAE about unpaid salaries, broke the news of the planned demolition of Dubai’s well-known “Toyota Building”, and helped set the record straight on widely circulated claims that a giant replica of the Moon was coming to Dubai. More recently, her exclusive interview with EDGE Group CEO Hamad Al Marar revealed how the UAE-based defence group deployed its systems along the country’s shore border and established a geofence around the UAE within 48 hours of the February 28 escalation. Prior to joining Gulf News, Nivetha worked at ITP Media, where she helped launch Finance Middle East, a new publication covering the region’s financial sector. Her role spanned reporting and editing, video production, interviews and events. Across print, digital, and video, she focuses on finding the people behind business stories and explaining why those stories matter to the audience reading or watching them.