Dubai gold price drops to Dh489.75 with markets pricing a 60% chance of Fed rate cut

Dubai: Dubai’s gold prices opened the week slightly lower as global markets reassessed the chances of another US Federal Reserve rate cut before year-end. The move capped a month of narrow but persistent swings, with bullion reacting to shifting expectations around the Fed’s next steps.

Dubai’s 24K rate stood at Dh489.75 on Monday, down from Dh492 last Friday. The 22K category followed the same path, slipping to Dh453.50 from Dh455.25. The decline mirrors the adjustment seen in international markets, where bullion traded near $4,040 an ounce after ending the previous week with a modest loss. (Check latest UAE gold prices here, alongside prices in Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and India.)

The month’s trend shows gold moving within a relatively tight band. After touching Dh504.75 for 24K on November 12, local prices have gradually eased back. The lower end of the month was seen around Dh475.25 on November 4, reflecting a period of consolidation after October’s record highs globally.

Gold’s pullback comes as traders look for clarity on the timing of a potential rate cut. Several Federal Reserve officials struck a cautious tone last week, although New York Fed President John Williams offered a hint of relief when he said he sees “room for a reduction in borrowing costs in the near term.” His comments helped bullion pare losses but did not erase the week’s downward momentum.

Lower interest rates typically boost gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Futures markets now see a little over 60% probability of a quarter-point cut next month, but that outlook depends heavily on the economic data delayed by the US government shutdown.

Traders will be watching for the release of September retail sales and producer-price data on Tuesday, followed by jobless-claims figures on Wednesday. These numbers will provide a clearer sense of whether the Fed has enough justification to loosen policy again.

The delayed reports have introduced additional uncertainty at a time when bullion has already been consolidating. After shooting above $4,380 an ounce on October 20, gold has been moving within a narrower range. Even so, prices remain up around 55% this year, supported by geopolitical tensions, trade risks, and concerns over deteriorating fiscal positions in several major economies.

Dubai’s daily gold chart for November shows a market holding firm despite global noise.

Some key points from the month’s movement:

The local market continues to reflect global uncertainty while maintaining its traditional resilience. With another round of US data due this week, traders will be looking for clearer signals on the Fed’s path, which is likely to shape gold’s next direction both internationally and in Dubai’s retail market.