Dubai gold steadies at Dh485.75 with traders bracing for the next policy signal

Dubai: Dubai’s retail gold market opened on a steady note on Tuesday, with 24K at Dh485.75 per gram and 22K at Dh449.75. Prices have held at the same levels for two consecutive days, offering a moment of calm after a volatile fortnight shaped by global movements in bullion. (Check latest UAE gold prices here, alongside prices in Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and India.)

The month began with gold hovering around the Dh482 range, before climbing sharply in the second week as global sentiment turned positive. The strongest point came on November 12, when 24K hit Dh504.75, its highest level of the month, and 22K reached Dh467.00.

That momentum faded as global bullion reversed course. From November 13 onward, Dubai prices moved steadily lower, slipping back towards the levels seen at the start of the month. The shift mirrored the pullback in international markets, where gold has been weighed down by a reassessment of the US interest-rate outlook.

Bullion has been under pressure globally, with prices near $4,034 an ounce after three sessions of declines. Traders who previously expected a rate cut in December are now scaling back their bets, with interest-rate swaps suggesting the probability has fallen below the halfway mark. Several Federal Reserve officials have urged caution, saying the central bank should wait for more data before taking further action.

Governor Christopher Waller took a different view, saying another cut remained on the table and should not be ruled out. His comments provided a rare counter-tone during a week dominated by warnings that policy easing may be delayed.

Markets will look to Thursday’s labour-market release for clarity. The jobs report, delayed by the six-week US government shutdown, is expected to be more backward-looking than usual, but investors still see it as the first opportunity to gauge the economy’s health after the disruption.

Even with the recent softness, gold remains one of the strongest-performing assets of the year. The metal is still up more than 50% in 2025 and on track for its best annual gain since 1979. Concerns over fiscal imbalances across major economies have kept investors heavily positioned in bullion, while central-bank buying has added another layer of support.

Goldman Sachs estimates that central banks purchased 64 tons in September alone, more than three times the amount bought in August. China accounted for an estimated 15 tons, far higher than the 1.24 tons officially reported, reflecting the country’s continued appetite for reserves.

Investors are also watching developments around Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, whose legal dispute with the Trump administration has introduced fresh uncertainty into the policy backdrop. Her rebuttal this week and the upcoming Supreme Court hearing in January have drawn attention at a time when the Fed is attempting to project stability.

For now, Dubai’s retail market is showing signs of settling, with prices returning to familiar territory after a brief surge earlier in the month. The next move will likely depend on Thursday’s labour data and how quickly expectations for a December rate cut shift again.