82% of UAE investors expect local stock market to rise in next 12 months

UAE retail investors are becoming increasingly bullish on their home market despite six months of geopolitical uncertainty, according to etoro’s latest UAE Retail Investor Beat, a survey of 1,000 retail investors residing in the UAE.  

More than eight in ten (82%) now expect the UAE stock market to rise over the next 12 months, up from 76% in March and the highest level recorded since the question was first asked in November 2024.  

The optimism is supported by strong confidence in the domestic listed companies. 93% of retail investors are confident in the long-term performance of locally listed UAE companies, up from 90% in March. Similarly, confidence in the UAE's economy rose from 90% to 91%.  

UAE retail investors are also bullish on the wider region, with more than half (58%) expecting the Middle East to deliver the strongest returns over the long term, ahead of other regions such as the US (47%) and China (35%).  

This confidence is translating into investment decisions. Among retail investors adjusting their portfolios in response to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the proportion reducing exposure to UAE equities has fallen to 14% from 25% in March.

 Despite elevated global interest rates, 71% of UAE retail investors plan to invest more over the next 12 months, while a further 21% do not intend to change their investing plans. 

Nagham Hassan, Market Analyst at etoro, commented on the findings:"The past six months have been a real test for markets, but UAE retail investors have not lost sight of the bigger picture, which is that the companies themselves kept performing. Two quarters of earnings confirmed it. 

Most listed companies kept growing through the period, and the ones that were hurt were the ones with direct exposure to the conflict and the disruption around it." 

The rising confidence in the local market comes as worries about geopolitics start to ease. 

The proportion of UAE retail investors who believe geopolitical tensions will “definitely” have a significant impact on their investment portfolio in the next six months has fallen from 38% in March to 30%. Meanwhile, those expecting little or no significant impact has risen from 18% to 25%.  

However, lower concern has not translated into complacency. Almost half (49%) now identify long-term security as one of their primary investment goals, up sharply from 34% in March. 

Retail investors are also becoming more selective about where they see opportunities in the UAE market. Optimism towards real estate has risen to 58% from 54%, while technology remains broadly stable at 49%, compared with 48% in March. By contrast, the proportion who are optimistic about energy has declined from 42% to 35%, while for financial services this has fallen from 37% to 33%. 

Nagham Hassan adds: “Retail investors here stayed engaged throughout 2026. Risk has not gone away, but the response to it has changed. After the first sell-off when the conflict started, the market absorbed the shock, and while it has not returned to pre-conflict levels, investors stopped selling broadly and instead started rotating out of the companies directly in the line of the disruption, and into the ones better cushioned from it. 

The pull toward real estate makes sense in that context, and the lighter positioning in energy and financial services points the same way, because a resolution brings oil down and eases inflation with it." 

“It's important to remember the sell-off came from the conflict, not from the companies, and a move driven by conflict reverses when the conflict does. It cut both ways too. The market fell a long way from February highs, but that gave anyone who missed the December 2025 rally an entry point. Investors know conflicts do not last forever, and they weigh fundamentals over headlines.”