Trump’s new 3-pronged strategy: Escort ships, bomb Iran, squeeze Tehran

Dubai: Six months into the Iran war, Donald Trump appears to have settled on a new three-pronged strategy for squeezing Tehran: Escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, bomb the military infrastructure Iran uses to threaten the waterway — and choke off Iran’s own oil exports.

On Tuesday, all three parts of that strategy came together in one of the most complex US operations of the war.

The US military escorted 40 commercial vessels carrying 18 million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, a wartime high, while simultaneously striking nearly 60 Iranian military targets around the waterway, two US officials told CNN.

American forces used air, sea and space assets during the operation, fending off waves of Iranian drones and neutralising anti-ship cruise missiles as commercial vessels moved through the strait.

The targets included air defence and radar systems, maritime assets, mine-laying capabilities and communications sites.

The message Washington is trying to send is increasingly clear: Iran may still be able to threaten Hormuz, but it will become progressively harder for Tehran to stop everyone else’s oil while exporting its own.

Before the war, roughly 20 million barrels of oil passed through Hormuz each day. On Monday, more than 17 million barrels reportedly crossed the strait — the highest level since the war began.

US officials now describe Hormuz as a “depreciating asset” for Iran: A weapon that loses some of its value every time Washington demonstrates that commercial vessels can be escorted safely through.

But perhaps the more consequential figure lies on the other side of the equation.

Iran has gone about seven weeks without shipping meaningful crude exports through Hormuz since the US naval blockade resumed on July 14, according to Kpler, Vortexa and TankerTrackers.com data cited by Reuters.

Iranian crude loadings plunged from about 2 million barrels per day in March to roughly 220,000-255,000 barrels per day in August.

That means Washington is attempting something sanctions alone never achieved: Physically choking off one of Tehran’s principal sources of foreign currency while keeping the same waterway increasingly open to its neighbours.

The squeeze does not stop at sea. Washington is simultaneously intensifying its financial offensive against Tehran, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying the US is likely to announce new bank sanctions this week and again next week, while also targeting companies and entities doing business with the IRGC. The aim, he said, is to “economically asphyxiate” the regime.

Because destroying Iran’s ability to threaten Hormuz once is not enough.

US officials acknowledge that Tehran has been rebuilding radar, missile and other military capabilities damaged in previous strikes.

That has turned the American campaign into what officials described to CNN as “mowing the grass” or a game of “whack-a-mole”: destroy the systems, watch Iran rebuild them, then strike again.

Trump said Wednesday that US forces had again destroyed radar and missile equipment Iran had reconstructed around Hormuz and warned that Washington was prepared to strike again.

That reveals one of the strategy’s biggest weaknesses.

Keeping Hormuz open may require a sustained American military operation rather than a decisive victory.

There has also been a significant change in priorities.

Operations aimed at eliminating remaining elements of Iran’s nuclear programme have effectively been put on the backburner for now, a US official told CNN.

Instead, US Central Command has been directed to concentrate on Hormuz, commercial shipping and preventing oil from entering or leaving Iranian ports.

The battlefield has therefore narrowed considerably: control the waterway, destroy Iran’s ability to threaten it and intensify the economic pressure on Tehran.

Militarily and economically, there are signs that it is.

More oil is moving through Hormuz. Iran’s surveillance and mine-laying capabilities have repeatedly been hit. And Tehran’s crude exports have collapsed.

But forcing ships through Hormuz is not the same as restoring confidence in it.

Shipping companies remain wary. Insurance costs are high, tanker charter rates have soared and LNG carriers are particularly cautious because of the catastrophic consequences if a vessel carrying liquefied natural gas were struck.

Iran is also far from surrendering its claim to leverage over the strait.

On Wednesday, Tehran expanded its blacklist of ships it says have violated its navigation rules from 45 vessels to 56, threatening fines, confiscation or detention if they attempt to transit Hormuz.

And Iran retains another powerful option: retaliation.

The latest US strikes have already produced another cycle of Iranian attacks, demonstrating how an economic strategy designed to squeeze Tehran can simultaneously create pressure for military escalation.

That leaves Trump facing a question that has frustrated US administrations dealing with Iran for decades.

Economic pain can weaken Tehran. Air strikes can destroy military hardware. Naval power can protect shipping.

But can those three pressures together force Iran’s leadership to make the political concessions Washington wants?

For now, Trump is betting that Iran will reach its economic breaking point before the US reaches its military, political or financial one.

Tuesday’s 18-million-barrel convoy suggests Washington may be getting better at breaking Iran’s grip on Hormuz.

Whether it can break Tehran’s will is a very different question.