Iran war: Why Tehran sees Trump’s midterms as its next battlefield

Dubai: Donald Trump says the Iran war could end “immediately after” America’s November 3 midterm elections. Tehran appears to have its own reason for watching that date closely.

With less than two months until Americans vote, Iran is intensifying pressure on the United States — from tightening restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz to attacks on US military assets — in what analysts see as an attempt to raise the political and economic cost of the war at the moment Trump can least afford it.

More than six months after US-Israeli attacks on February 28 triggered the war, Tehran is showing little sign of backing down or seeking a rapid diplomatic exit.

Instead, Iran has expanded a prohibited zone in Hormuz, targeted vessels attempting to cross it and attacked a US military base in Jordan.

Trump, meanwhile, made the electoral timetable explicit on Wednesday.

“I think the war will end immediately after the election,” he said, arguing that Iran “can’t hold out any longer”.

But analysts believe Tehran may be looking at the same calendar and drawing the opposite conclusion.

“Iran perceives that it is winning the war and that the US is losing,” Thomas Juneau, professor at the University of Ottawa, told AFP.

“It perceives a window of opportunity to exploit US weakness and vulnerability to reshape the regional order to its benefit,” he said.

Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House, said Iran was attempting to “convert escalation into increased leverage”.

“Tehran believes that pressure on Hormuz and the threat of wider disruption can exploit US vulnerabilities, especially the political and economic costs of another Middle East crisis ahead of the midterms,” she told AFP.

The calculation is straightforward: The closer Trump gets to November 3, the more politically sensitive American casualties, a prolonged Middle East war and high energy prices could become.

That makes the Strait of Hormuz one of Tehran’s most powerful sources of leverage.

Before the war, the waterway carried around a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas. Iran has since announced and expanded a prohibited zone there.

The Revolutionary Guards said on Wednesday they targeted 10 vessels attempting to cross the restricted area.

Iran also said it struck a US military base in Jordan after American forces destroyed five Iranian oil tankers. CBS News reported that around eight US F-15 fighter jets sustained light damage in the Iranian strikes.

Disruption to a major global energy artery can keep oil and fuel prices elevated just as Americans prepare to vote.

“Iran cannot defeat the United States militarily,” Ali Alfoneh, a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute, told AFP.

Instead, he said, Tehran hopes to weaken Trump politically by contributing to a Republican defeat — keeping petrol prices high while reminding voters that the president has become embroiled in the kind of “never-ending war” he promised to avoid.

Control of Congress is at stake on November 3. Republican losses could constrain Trump during the remaining two years of his presidency — an outcome Tehran may believe would strengthen its hand.

Iran is also attaching ambitious conditions to ending the conflict.

Revolutionary Guards spokesman Hossein Mohebi on Wednesday issued demands ranging from the withdrawal of Israeli forces operating in southern Lebanon to the release of about $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets.

Mohsen Rezaei, head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said Tehran would take no further steps unless Washington engaged in “trust building measures”.

The message is clear: Tehran sees little reason to make concessions simply because Washington believes Iran is running out of time.

The strategy carries considerable risks.

Iran has suffered heavy military and economic damage, while its leadership is navigating the transition following the death of Ali Khamenei. His successor and son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has yet to make a public appearance.

“There absolutely is a risk of Iran overplaying its hand,” Juneau told AFP, describing the leadership as “very vulnerable domestically”.

Vakil similarly warned that Tehran could be overestimating how much escalation Washington will tolerate.

Trump believes time favours Washington. The Wall Street Journal, however, has reported that advisers warned him Iran could potentially resist even beyond the end of his presidency in January 2029.

That leaves Washington and Tehran looking at the same November 3 deadline through completely different lenses.

Trump believes the election could mark the beginning of the war’s end. Iran may be betting that the weeks before it offer its best chance to change the war’s course.

What are they? Midterm elections are held halfway through a US president’s four-year term — hence the name “midterms”.

When? Americans vote on November 3, 2026.

What is being elected? All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats, including two special Senate elections, are being contested.

Why important for Trump? Republicans currently control Congress, but their House majority is narrow and control of the Senate is also being fiercely contested.

What if Republicans lose the House? Democrats could block parts of Trump’s legislative agenda and gain powerful committee and subpoena powers to investigate his administration.

What about the Senate? Losing it would make it harder for Trump to secure confirmation of administration officials and federal judges.

Why does Iran matter? The prolonged war and higher fuel costs have become election issues, making Tehran’s actions particularly sensitive for Trump in the final weeks before voting