Eight big questions hanging over the US-Iran memorandum of understanding
From Hormuz and sanctions relief to nuclear talks and Israel’s role, major doubts remain
Dubai: The United States and Iran have signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) aimed at extending the ceasefire that ended months of conflict and creating a pathway towards a broader settlement. But while the agreement has eased immediate fears of renewed fighting, many of its most important provisions remain unresolved.
The Strait of Hormuz has yet to fully reopen, the full text of the deal has not been released, and major questions remain over sanctions relief, Iran’s nuclear programme and the role of Israel.
According to a report by Axios, senior US officials say the coming weeks will determine whether the agreement evolves into a lasting settlement or becomes merely a temporary pause in tensions.
Here are eight key questions hanging over the deal:
1. Is the deal actually in effect?
The MoU was signed electronically on Sunday by President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
US officials say a 60-day extension of the ceasefire took effect immediately. However, several major provisions, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, are expected to be implemented only after a formal signing ceremony in Geneva on Friday.
2. Will the Strait of Hormuz fully reopen?
Although Trump declared that the waterway would reopen and remain toll-free, significant ship traffic had not appeared to resume as of Tuesday morning.
US officials say commercial traffic should gradually increase in the coming weeks. Shipping companies, however, are reportedly waiting for clearer security guarantees before resuming normal operations.
Iranian officials have also suggested that the strait may not simply return to its pre-war status.
The nuclear hurdle still to come
The memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed by the US and Iran is not a nuclear agreement. Instead, it creates a 60-day window for negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear programme — the issue that lies at the heart of the dispute.
What’s at stake?
Iran says it has no intention of acquiring nuclear weapons.
The US wants guarantees that Iran can never develop one.
Washington is seeking limits on uranium enrichment and a resolution to the future of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium.
Most sanctions relief sought by Tehran depends on reaching a final nuclear accord.
Iran, meanwhile, wants sanctions lifted and recognition of its right to a civilian nuclear programme.
Why it will be difficult
Years of mistrust continue to overshadow negotiations.
US officials acknowledge that reaching a nuclear deal will be far harder than securing the ceasefire agreement.
Critics inside and outside the US administration question whether Iran is prepared to make the concessions Washington seeks.
Iranian officials have repeatedly insisted they will not surrender what they describe as legitimate nuclear rights.
3. Will ships eventually face fees?
One of the most contentious issues concerns Iran’s plans for future maritime charges.
Iran has indicated that while no transit charges will apply during the initial 60-day period, vessels could later be required to pay fees for maritime, environmental or navigational services.
Critics argue that if ships effectively have to pay to use the waterway, the distinction between a fee and a toll could become largely academic.
4. What does Iran get in return?
Both sides agree that Iran benefits from an end to the fighting and sanctions waivers that would allow oil exports to continue.
The bigger dispute concerns access to frozen Iranian funds and broader economic relief.
US officials insist any benefits will be tied to Iranian compliance, while Iranian media have portrayed the package as more generous and immediate.
5. Why hasn’t the full text been released?
The absence of an official text has fuelled confusion over what was actually agreed.
According to Axios, US officials expect the document to be released soon, although Trump has suggested publication could wait until after Friday’s formal signing ceremony.
Until then, both supporters and critics are relying largely on partial descriptions from officials and mediators.
6. Will Israel fully comply?
The agreement faces significant scepticism in Israel.
Israeli officials have insisted they retain the right to respond to attacks by Hezbollah and have expressed concern that the deal could restrict Israel’s freedom of action in Lebanon.
The issue nearly derailed the agreement after Israeli strikes in Beirut prompted criticism from Washington.
7. Can a nuclear deal really be reached?
Perhaps the most important question concerns Iran’s nuclear programme.
The current MoU is not a nuclear agreement. Instead, it launches 60 days of negotiations aimed at reaching a more detailed accord covering uranium enrichment, nuclear stockpiles and verification measures.
US officials acknowledge that these talks will be far more difficult than negotiating the ceasefire itself.
8. What happens if negotiations fail?
The agreement is designed to buy time for diplomacy. But if negotiations collapse, the risk of renewed confrontation remains.
US officials have indicated that American forces deployed during the conflict will remain in the region until a broader settlement is achieved.
Iranian officials, meanwhile, argue that Tehran now holds greater leverage after surviving the conflict.
For now, the ceasefire appears to be holding. But the success of the agreement will depend less on what was signed this week than on whether Washington and Tehran can resolve the disputes that remain.
With Hormuz, sanctions relief, nuclear restrictions and regional security all still under negotiation, the coming weeks could prove decisive for the future of the deal.
