Dubai gold finds footing near Dh550 after month-long decline
Prices recover from steep fall, but global risks keep outlook uncertain
At 8.40 am, 24K gold was at Dh549, up from Dh541.75 a day earlier, while 22K rose to Dh508.50 from Dh501.50. The move reflects a steady pickup in buying interest after prices found a floor in the final week of the month.
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Gradual climb
Prices began the month at elevated levels above Dh640 for 24K, before easing through mid-March where rates slipped from above Dh600 to the mid Dh500 range within days.
Selling pressure intensified in the second half, pushing prices down to around Dh528 by March 24 and briefly stabilising near Dh529 to Dh530. A short-lived bounce toward Dh545 followed, before another dip took prices back to the low Dh540 range at the start of this week.
The latest move to Dh549 marks a recovery from those lows, though prices remain well below the early-month peak.
Downside risks to global growth from elevated oil prices are becoming more pronounced, which could revive defensive positioning and support bullion despite the rate environment.Tony Sage, CEO of Critical Metals
Global cues drive sentiment shift
International markets are shaping the direction. Gold extended gains globally after signals that the US may seek an end to the Iran conflict without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, easing some immediate risk concerns while keeping uncertainty intact.
At the same time, comments from the Federal Reserve indicating a pause in rate decisions have reduced pressure on bullion, which tends to struggle in a high interest rate environment.
Tony Sage, CEO of Critical Metals, said the recent rebound reflects renewed investor positioning after the correction.
“Gold prices extended their rebound at the start of the week, stabilising after a recent corrective phase. The persistence of geopolitical risk in the Middle East could underpin safe-haven demand, particularly after the metal’s correction during the first part of this month, fueling dip-buying.”
He added that rising oil prices and concerns over global growth could further support defensive demand.
“Downside risks to global growth from elevated oil prices are becoming more pronounced, which could revive defensive positioning and support bullion despite the rate environment.”
Short-term pressure still in play
The recovery remains fragile. Central bank activity and broader financial conditions continue to weigh on sentiment.
“At the same time, gold could remain vulnerable in the short term amid the risk of more central-bank selling, after Turkey’s central bank offloaded a significant amount, and a potential increase in Treasury yields and the dollar. ETF flows remained negative overall and could weigh on the market if the trend continues,” Sage said.
What to watch next
Markets are now looking to geopolitical developments, inflation trends and US economic data for direction.
“Looking ahead, gold’s trajectory will likely hinge on the developments in the Middle East, inflation expectations, and the evolution of monetary policy, in addition to the potential impact of elevated oil prices on the global economy. Upcoming US economic data could also affect sentiment and drive gold prices as they influence monetary policy expectations.”
- With inputs from Bloomberg.
