Saudi oil keeps flowing despite attacks, say trackers: Why counting barrels is not easy

Saudi Arabia’s oil exports are holding near wartime highs, Bloomberg reported.

This, despite a wave of attacks on the kingdom’s energy infrastructure and Iran-claimed "mine strikes" on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, according to preliminary ship-tracking data.

Figures from three trackers — Vortexa, TankerTrackers.com and Kpler — were cited in industry reports essentially confirming a Bloomberg article published on October 28, which showed Saudi oil exports holding near wartime highs despite Houthi and Iranian attacks.

Vortexa puts shipments from the the Kingdom's western and eastern coasts at 6.5 million barrels a day so far in October, against 6.6 million for all of September.

TankerTrackers.com estimates 6.99 million, a prewar level. Kpler has 5.4 million, below September.

The gap is wide: Kpler data reported by Asharq Business show Ras Tanura loaded 2.95 million barrels a day from Oct. 1 to 25, about 29 per cent below September’s 4.16 million, with total exports at 5.52 million.

There are fundamental reasons why Saudi Arabia may have lost pipelines, storage tanks, refineries, and ships — but are somehow still shipping more with less infrastructure.

Maritime intelligence service Tanker Trackers, which tracks crude oil shipments, with a specialty in dark fleet tankers using daily satellite imagery, offered key reasons:

1) Pipelines are quick and easy to replace.

2) An excess of storage tanks is nice to have but not a deal-breaker.

3) Damaging a refinery only frees up more crude oil for exports.

4) Limpet-mine stricken ships continue to the Gulf of Oman for ship-to-ship transfer (STS) and then get patched up.

More vessels are cutting their satellite signals, which makes counting harder.

Separately, Bloomberg’s Javier Blas, citing Vortexa data, reported exports above 7 million barrels a day in the first 22 days of October. That conflicts with the 6.5 million figure, though the difference has not been explained.

The Red Sea is helping.

Vortexa data show Red Sea exports, mainly via Yanbu, at about 2.5 million barrels a day in October, up from 2.4 million in September, after an Iraq-origin drone attacks shut the East-West pipeline (known as Aramco's "Petroline") on Sept. 10-11, forcing a temporary precautionary shutdown.

It restarted on Sept. 22, though at reduced throughput. Saudi Arabia has also raised shipments through Hormuz, where flows are near prewar levels.

A fire broke out near the Ras Tanura terminal on Oct. 27, and the Houthis claimed a missile strike.

A source told Bloomberg it was contained, but the damage was initially unclear. Brent has reached its highest level in almost six months.

Late on Friday, Iran's IRIB broadcaster reported a supertanker laden with 2million barrels of oil "exploded after striking a SEA MINE in an unauthorised route in Hormuz." This cannot be independently confirmed.

Saudi barrels are a main buffer against the Hormuz disruption, and the estimates differ by about 1.6 million barrels a day. That affects oil prices, Gulf revenues and fuel costs in the UAE. The data are preliminary, and darkened transponders cloud the picture.

Watch whether October’s pace holds in November data, official Saudi figures, and any further hits on Ras Tanura, Yanbu or Hormuz shipping. A possible US strike on Iran after Nov. 3 midterms could upend flows.

The “above 7 million” Vortexa figure comes from a Newsquawk summary of Blas’s report. It is apart from the 6.5 million number Bloomberg reported.

Talks between the US and Iran continue, and no decision on a military strike on Iran has been made, the US officials told allies in the Gulf region to prepare.