Tankers keep moving as Gulf oil exports clear pre-war mark: Kpler

Dubai: Middle East crude oil exports rose above pre-war levels on several days in the last few weeks of September, according to shipping data from maritime intelligence firm Kpler. The increase was despite continued attacks on commercial vessels around the Strait of Hormuz during those weeks.

Crude exports from the region reached between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day (bpd) on September 24 and on September 27-29, according to provisional Kpler data cited by Reuters. The seven-day moving average stood at 18.5 million bpd on October 1, above the pre-war average of about 18 million bpd. The increase marks a significant recovery from the sharp disruption to Gulf oil shipments following the start of the US-Israeli war with Iran in late February.

Kpler's own latest analysis provides further detail on how the region has restored oil flows despite continued disruption to its traditional export routes.

The firm's analysis, published in early October, found that at least 16.5 million bpd of crude and condensate left the Middle East Gulf region between September 1 and September 28, matching the pre-war average when Iran is excluded. That was 10.5 million bpd higher than the March monthly average, which shows the scale of recovery. Kpler defines the pre-war period as March 2025 to February 2026. However, the recovery has come with a major change in how the region moves its oil.

Before the conflict, around 83 per cent of Middle East Gulf crude exports crossed the Strait of Hormuz. In September, that figure had fallen sharply, with 40 per cent of regional crude leaving through routes that bypassed the strait. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have increased their use of pipelines and alternative terminals, while ship-to-ship transfers have become increasingly important.

In August, more than 70 per cent of crude crossing the Strait of Hormuz changed tankers offshore, according to Kpler.

Kpler said the regional export system has effectively been rebuilt around a combination of alternative routes, pipelines and offshore transfers.

The firm's analysis found that the recovery has already survived three major disruptions

Each disruption resulted in oil flows being redirected through another route. 

The growing dependence on offshore transfers has also created new logistical constraints. Kpler said ship-to-ship activity in the Gulf of Oman reached a record level in September.Large crude carriers are increasingly being used as shuttle vessels, with some VLCCs making repeated trips between the Gulf and offshore transfer points.

The system allows exporters to reduce their dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, but it also adds time, complexity and cost to the movement of crude. The recovery in export volumes therefore does not mean the region's oil supply chain has returned to normal.

The latest figures point to a fundamental change in the way Gulf oil reaches international markets. The firm however cautioned that its recent figures represent minimum confirmed volumes because additional shipments can be added as more evidence becomes available.

The latest data suggests that the Gulf oil industry has demonstrated a greater ability to adapt to prolonged disruption than initially expected. But the continuing attacks on tankers around the Strait of Hormuz mean that the region's export system remains exposed to significant security and logistical risks.