Ranked: Richest nations in 2050 — where India, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Philippines, Egypt, Nigeria may rank

Data from investment bank Goldman Sachs highlights seismic wealth shift toward Asia

Last updated:
Jay Hilotin, Senior Assistant Editor
The OECD cautioned against easing up, with core-price gains remaining stubborn in many countries even as headline gauges head lower.
The OECD cautioned against easing up, with core-price gains remaining stubborn in many countries even as headline gauges head lower.
Shutterstock

In the long journey of nations, there come moments when the balance of industry and wealth shifts as the tide shifts upon the sea.

So it may be with the world economy in the years ahead.

Figures drawn from the estimations of Goldman Sachs suggest that by the middle of this century, around 2050, the centre of "economic gravity" will lean more heavily toward Asia than ever before.

Pivot to Asia

The New York-based investment bank predicts that a dramatic shift in global economic power is underway — and would see its epicenter moving east.

By 2050, the economies of emerging Asia could account for around 40% of the world’s total output, equivalent to $90.6 trillion in today’s dollars, according to Goldman.

In other words, the region once seen as the world’s manufacturing workshop may soon become its dominant economic engine.

Key factors

The rise of Asia is being driven by a powerful combination of the following:

  • Demographics

  • Urbanisation

  • Governance (curbing corruption, inefficiency challenges)

  • Technological catch-up.

Countries such as India and Indonesia are home to vast, youthful populations entering the workforce just as many Western economies confront aging societies and shrinking labour pools.

At the same time, the steady expansion of cities across Asia is fuelling consumption, massive infrastructure development, and productivity gains.

Role of tech, manufacturing

Technology and industrial upgrades also play a crucial role.

Manufacturing hubs in China, Vietnam, and Thailand have steadily moved up the value chain, producing everything from advanced electronics to electric vehicles.

As incomes rise, these economies are also becoming major consumer markets in their own right.

Another factor: economic "convergence" — the tendency for developing countries to grow faster as they adopt existing and new tech (including electrification, robotics), and business models pioneered in richer nations.

From 'non-developed' to main engine

With billions of people still climbing the income ladder, Asia retains enormous growth potential.

In short: the areas of "non-developed Asia" together may command some 40% of the world’s output — near $90.6 trillion in today’s dollars — surpassing the share of the developed economies, which together may hold 36%, or roughly $82.9 trillion, Goldman projects.

Behind them stand the nations of Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa with 17% of the world’s production, while Latin America claims near 7%.

Engines of the future

Among the top engines of this future age, China is projected to stand foremost at $41.9 trillion, followed closely by the United States at $37.2 trillion, and India rising strong in third place with $22.2 trillion.

New vigour may also arise in Indonesia, Egypt, and Nigeria, whose youthful populations promise growth and industry.

Meanwhile, stalwart nations such as Germany and Japan may remain prosperous, yet command a smaller share of the world’s total wealth.

Such projections, illustrated by Visual Capitalist, speak of a world becoming more multipolar — where prosperity spreads among nations, even as new challenges arise within them.

For investors and statesmen alike, the lesson is plain: the future will not belong to one region alone, but to many striving peoples across the globe.

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