What’s next in Iran war? Trump ends talks, tightens squeeze as Tehran vows to break US naval blockade

Dubai: Nearly six months into the war, Donald Trump appears to be settling on a new strategy for Iran: Stop chasing an elusive diplomatic breakthrough, maintain economic and naval pressure and wait for Tehran to bend.

Iran is signalling something very different. It says that if the squeeze continues, it is prepared to fight its way out.

The collision between those strategies could define the next phase of a war that has already inflicted damage on US bases, depleted American weapons stockpiles and severely restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump on Tuesday instructed his top envoys to halt conversations with Iran, CNN reported, citing a US official. White House officials have also communicated a shift in thinking to political allies — from trying to “hammer Iran ASAP” to attempting to “strangle them” over time, according to CNN.

“There are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Trump declared on social media, adding that the naval blockade would remain “in full force and effect”.

Washington’s calculation appears increasingly clear: Time and economic pressure could achieve what months of fighting and negotiations have not — force Iran to accept Trump’s terms.

But Tehran is betting that time can hurt Washington too.

A senior Iranian official warned this week that Tehran could move to a “fully offensive” posture if diplomacy failed to end the US naval blockade.

Iran was prepared to launch a “timely and precise” military attack to break the blockade, the official told Reuters.

That warning complicates Trump’s strategy. A prolonged squeeze carries the risk that Iran will respond not by conceding, but by escalating.

The Strait of Hormuz remains at the heart of the confrontation. Trump says the waterway is “open and operating”, but traffic remains severely restricted. Iran insists it will not fully reopen until Washington meets its conditions.

That has produced a dangerous test of endurance: Washington believes pressure will eventually force Tehran to compromise; Tehran believes disruption and the threat of military escalation can force Washington to move first.

The US says it can maintain the naval blockade for an extended period and is preparing further economic pressure against Iran.

That offers Trump an alternative to another massive round of strikes: Tighten the economic noose and wait.

But America faces pressures of its own.

The Pentagon estimates the war will cost about $37.5 billion by the end of September, excluding reconstruction of damaged bases. US forces have also used more than 1,000 advanced air-defence interceptors, reducing stocks of Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defence missiles.

Ships and personnel have endured unusually long deployments.

The question therefore cuts both ways: Can Washington sustain the squeeze longer than Tehran can withstand it?

There are signs the Pentagon is already reconsidering how American forces should be positioned for a prolonged confrontation.

The Pentagon is evaluating whether to reduce the US military presence in the Arabian Gulf after Iranian attacks exposed the vulnerability of American bases, The Washington Post reported.

The assessment is preliminary and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has not ordered a formal review. A senior Pentagon official called it “prudent planning”.

US Central Command normally stations about 40,000 troops at nearly 20 sites across the region, with some of America’s largest Middle East bases concentrated in the Gulf.

But those fixed installations have proved vulnerable.

Six American service members were killed in a March strike on Port Shuaiba in Kuwait. Four more were killed in an Iranian attack on Jordan last month. More than 200 US facilities have been damaged or destroyed during the conflict, according to an earlier Washington Post report.

Adm. Bradley Cooper, head of Central Command, supports discussions about potentially moving some forces westwards from the Gulf, a US official told the newspaper.

Possible locations include Jordan, Israel and Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast.

Such a move would not necessarily amount to an American withdrawal. Instead, Washington could disperse troops and equipment while maintaining its ability to pressure Iran.

Taken together, the developments suggest an important shift.

Trump appears prepared to intensify pressure on Iran while putting diplomacy on hold. At the same time, the Pentagon may seek to make American forces less vulnerable to Iranian retaliation.

Iran, however, is warning that it will not simply absorb that pressure.

Trump believes sanctions and blockade will eventually leave Tehran little choice but to negotiate. Iran believes the US faces its own limits — military costs, depleted weapons stocks and political pressure to end the war.

Neither side therefore sees an urgent reason to concede.

It is precisely the kind of prolonged stalemate the UAE has warned against. Dr Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE President, has said a “no peace, no war” situation is not sustainable, stressing the need for diplomacy and a political solution.

That makes the next phase potentially more dangerous. Washington’s strategy depends on Iran enduring the squeeze long enough to change course. Tehran is now explicitly warning that it may instead use force to break it.

The question is no longer simply whether Trump and Iran can reach a deal.

It is which side can endure the other’s pressure longer — and what happens if Iran decides it cannot afford to wait.