Trump's mixed messages on Iran: 'Winding down' the war and easing sanctions but adding more troops

President Donald Trump frequently contradicts himself, sometimes within the same speech, social media post, or even sentence. On Friday, he sent a torrent of mixed signals about the Iran war, raising questions about the conflict’s direction and his administration’s strategy.

During this period, Trump said he was considering winding down the war, his administration confirmed it was sending more troops to the Middle East, and, in an effort to ease the economic impact on global energy markets, the United States lifted sanctions on some Iranian oil for the first time in decades—relieving some of the pressure Washington has traditionally used as leverage.

The confusing combination of actions fuels a sense among critics that there is no clear, long-term strategy for the war the US and Israel launched against Iran. Now in its fourth week, the war remains unpredictable, and a credible endgame is unclear, even as the global economy is being roiled.

Just 24 hours after saying the US was considering a pullback, Trump issued another contradictory statement Saturday evening, threatening to escalate the conflict by targeting Iran’s power plants unless the country allows oil shipments through the Gulf.

After another rough day in the financial markets, Trump said Friday afternoon on his social media network: "We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great military efforts in the Middle East."

Trump contended that the US has adequately degraded Iranian naval, missile, and industrial capacity, preventing Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.

He suggested the US could pull out of the conflict without stabilising the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply travels. The strait has been ravaged by Iranian missile, drone, and mine attacks during the war.

"The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other nations who use it—the United States does not!" Trump wrote. In another contradiction, he said the US would help if asked, “but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated.”

Oil moving through the strait is usually bound for Asia, but disruptions still affect the US, as global oil shortages push prices higher worldwide. Coupled with an Israeli strike on Iran’s gas fields and an Iranian retaliation that crippled a major LNG terminal in Qatar, the chaos contributed to a 1.5% drop in the S&P 500 on Friday and a sharp rise in US fuel prices.

Trump’s concern about the strait’s blockage erupted Saturday night when he posted on social media that he’d “hit and obliterate” Iran’s power plants unless the strait is opened within 48 hours—a threat against civilian infrastructure and a further escalation.

Even as Trump suggested the war was winding down, the administration announced it was sending three more warships and about 2,500 additional Marines to the Middle East—the second troop surge in a week. About 50,000 U.S. personnel are currently supporting the war effort.

Trump has remained non-committal on sending ground troops, while officials have hinted at possible deployment of special forces. The expeditionary Marines being sent are designed for quick amphibious operations, but their deployment does not guarantee a full-scale ground invasion. Analysts note that securing the strait might ultimately require a U.S. ground presence.

The troop surge followed news that the Pentagon is requesting an additional $200 billion from Congress to fund the war—an amount that signals the conflict is far from winding down.

The administration said it would lift sanctions on Iranian oil already at sea, aiming to ease global energy prices and allow freer sales of oil passing through the strait. The move also extends a financial lifeline to Tehran, which Washington has been targeting.

Other measures to lower oil prices include tapping the US strategic petroleum reserve and lifting some Russian oil sanctions. Yet Brent crude remained at $112 per barrel on Friday, and analysts warn prices may stay high for months.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wrote on X that unlocking 140 million barrels of Iranian oil for global markets would help relieve temporary supply pressures. But Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said the effect will be limited: “Prices will likely still continue to rise so long as the strait remains blocked.”

Bessent also labelled Iran “the head of the snake for global terrorism,” pledging to prevent Tehran from profiting from the sales—though how this would be enforced remains unclear.

Even some Republicans publicly criticised the contradictions. “Bombing Iran with one hand and buying Iran oil with the other,” Rep. Nancy Mace of South Carolina posted on X Saturday.