El Niño 2026: Will UAE see hotter, more humid weather as NCM forecasts 98 per cent chance?

Dubai: A powerful climate phenomenon developing thousands of kilometres away in the tropical Pacific Ocean could soon influence weather patterns across the UAE, raising the prospect of hotter conditions, higher humidity and a more active autumn storm season.

The UAE's National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) has forecast a 98 per cent probability of El Niño conditions prevailing between July and November 2026, after sea surface temperatures in the key Niño 3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific rose above the threshold that officially defines the phenomenon.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that develops every two to seven years when surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become warmer than normal. 

The warming weakens the trade winds that normally push warm water westward across the Pacific, triggering shifts in global weather patterns that can influence rainfall, temperatures and storm activity far beyond the ocean where the phenomenon originates.

While El Niño forms far from the Arabian Peninsula, it can reshape weather patterns across large parts of the globe. In the UAE, the effects are unlikely to be as dramatic as those experienced in parts of South America or Asia, but they could still be significant.

Possibly. The NCM has indicated that temperatures and rainfall during the second half of 2026 are likely to range from near-normal to above-normal levels, reflecting growing confidence among forecasters that El Niño conditions will strengthen through the year.

Historically, some El Niño episodes have been associated with improved rainfall prospects across parts of the Arabian Peninsula, particularly during autumn. Climate experts say the phenomenon can influence large-scale weather systems moving across the region, increasing the likelihood of thunderstorms and periods of unsettled weather later in the year.

However, higher rainfall totals do not necessarily mean prolonged wet weather. In countries such as the UAE, precipitation often arrives through short-lived but intense weather events.

"The impact on the UAE is generally indirect but noticeable," said Ibrahim Al Jarwan, Chairman of the Emirates Astronomical Society and a member of the Arab Union for Astronomy and Space Sciences.

He noted that El Niño years are often associated with above-average temperatures across the Gulf region, increased humidity along coastal areas and occasional shifts in prevailing wind patterns.

The greater concern may emerge later in the year.

Past El Niño events have been linked to enhanced tropical activity in the Arabian Sea during autumn, increasing the likelihood of cyclones and severe weather systems affecting parts of Oman, Yemen and, on occasion, the wider Gulf region.

Meteorologists say El Niño can also contribute to stronger atmospheric disturbances and improve the chances of rainfall across parts of the Arabian Peninsula. However, cyclone formation depends on a range of factors and cannot be attributed to El Niño alone.

Global forecasters are becoming increasingly alert to the developing event.

The United Nations' World Meteorological Organization estimates an 80 per cent chance of El Niño emerging between June and August, rising above 90 per cent by November. Several climate models suggest the event could strengthen further into 2027.

Satellite observations have already detected a large pool of unusually warm water beneath the eastern Pacific Ocean, with subsurface temperatures exceeding seasonal averages by as much as six degrees Celsius in some areas. Scientists regard such heat reservoirs as a key source of energy for stronger El Niño development.

Some forecasting centres have even raised the possibility of a "super El Niño" emerging over the next year. The US Climate Prediction Center estimates a 67 per cent probability that conditions could intensify significantly as 2027 approaches.

If that occurs, global temperatures could rise further, potentially making 2027 one of the hottest years ever recorded.

El Niño is known to amplify existing climate trends, including global warming, increasing the likelihood of record-breaking temperatures, extreme rainfall events, droughts and disruptions to food production.

In the Middle East, one of the world's most water-stressed regions, such changes could place additional pressure on water resources, energy systems and agricultural supply chains.

The UAE's extensive investment in desalination, infrastructure resilience and climate adaptation reduces its vulnerability compared with many countries. 

That said, the emergence of El Niño does not mean the UAE is heading for a climate disaster. Nor does it guarantee severe storms or unprecedented rainfall.

What it does mean is that the odds are shifting towards warmer conditions, higher humidity and a potentially more active weather pattern during the second half of 2026 and into 2027.