UAE four-month forecast: El Niño likely to bring warmer, wetter weather from July to November

Temperatures and rainfall expected to be near to above seasonal averages

Last updated:
Khitam Al Amir, Chief News Editor
The NCM said the Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly stood at 0.5 degrees Celsius, placing conditions within the El Niño category.
The NCM said the Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly stood at 0.5 degrees Celsius, placing conditions within the El Niño category.
Biju Karthikeyan/Gulf News reader

The National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) said there is a 98 per cent probability that El Niño conditions will prevail between July and November 2026, with temperatures and rainfall expected to be near to above seasonal averages.

In its latest seasonal forecast, the NCM said the Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly stood at 0.5 degrees Celsius, placing conditions within the El Niño category. The centre noted that the Niño 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific is the key climate indicator influencing weather patterns affecting the UAE.

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The centre said El Niño is a periodic shift in the tropical Pacific Ocean-atmosphere system that influences weather patterns around the world, including the UAE. It noted that the Niño 3.4 region is the key climate indicator affecting the country.

Based on its outlook for July to November 2026, the NCM expects both temperatures and precipitation across the UAE to range from near average to above average as a result of the anticipated El Niño conditions.

The centre added that the status of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is monitored and updated on a monthly basis using international climate observations and forecasting models.

Khitam Al Amir
Khitam Al AmirChief News Editor
With over 30 years of journalistic experience spanning from Jordan to the UAE, Khitam has spent the past 22 years reporting on national and regional news from Dubai, with a strong focus on the UAE, GCC and broader Arab affairs. As Chief News Editor, she brings extensive expertise in delivering breaking and engaging news to readers. Beginning her tenure as a translator, she advanced through roles as Senior Translator and Chief Translator before transitioning to editorial positions, culminating in her current leadership role. Her responsibilities encompass monitoring breaking news across the UAE and the broader Arab region, ensuring timely and accurate dissemination to the public.​ Born into a family of journalists, Khitam's passion for news was ignited early in life. A defining moment in her youth occurred in September 1985 when she had the opportunity to converse with the late British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher during her visit to a Palestinian refugee camp north of Amman. During this encounter, Khitam shared her family's experiences of displacement from their home in Palestine and their subsequent refuge in Jordan. This poignant interaction not only deepened her understanding of geopolitical issues but also solidified her commitment to pursuing a career in journalism, aiming to shed light on the stories of those affected by regional conflicts. Khitam’s commitment to accurate and timely reporting drives her to seek out news that interests readers, making her a trusted source for news on the UAE and the broader Gulf region.
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