Gargash: Iran war needs lasting peace, not a temporary fix

Dubai: Any settlement of the Iran war must deliver lasting peace rather than a temporary pause before fighting erupts again, Dr Anwar Gargash, Diplomatic Adviser to the UAE President, has said, calling for substantive talks between Iran and its Gulf neighbours alongside negotiations involving Washington.

“We do need peace, but I think also we need peace that will last,” Gargash said in an interview with Foreign Affairs.

“We don’t need, you know, sort of a patch up job where suddenly within three months, four months, five months, we have another outbreak.”

“I think we need something with more permanency.”

Gargash said achieving that would require discussions at several levels — not only between the United States and Iran, but also between Tehran and Gulf countries.

“And for that to happen, you really have to have substantive discussions and you have to have them at different levels,” he said.

“The American-Iranian level is one important level. But I think also from our vantage point in the Gulf, these discussions at the Gulf or individual Gulf countries or the Gulf as a group with Iran is extremely important.”

Gargash said such negotiations would have to go beyond immediate transactional issues and begin addressing confidence-building and non-belligerence.

The objective, he said, should be to determine “how can we actually, out of this wreckage of the moment, create something a little bit more permanent.”

The comments come almost seven months after the US-Israeli war against Iran began on February 28 and amid continuing efforts to find a diplomatic way out of a conflict that has engulfed the wider region.

Gargash said the UAE had opposed the war from the outset because its previous experience of regional conflicts suggested that it would be prolonged and its consequences difficult to contain.

“I think from that perspective, the UAE was genuinely concerned and our messaging to all our friends in Washington and other places was against this war because we understood from our previous experiences that this is going to take a long time,” he said.

“This will be very complicated and the after effects will have to be dealt with for many, many years.”

Gargash said the UAE did not have early warning that war was imminent, but its assessment of the widening gap between Washington and Tehran in nuclear negotiations led it to expect a conflict.

Once fighting began, the UAE also anticipated that Iran would attack Gulf countries.

But the scale of what followed was unexpected.

“When this conflict started, I think we expected that there will be an Iranian attack on us and on other Gulf countries,” Gargash said.

“But we did not really expect an attack of this sort of breadth and this sort of tenacity.”

Gargash said Iran had subjected the UAE to 3,300 missiles and drones, with 95 per cent directed at civilian infrastructure, while the country’s interception rate was “in the upper 90s”.

He characterised the conflict as, from the UAE’s perspective, involving two separate wars.

“During this war, as I said, there were actually two wars, the way that we see it,” he said.

“There’s an American-Israeli war against Iran, and then there is a war of Iran against the Gulf countries.”

The UAE had sought to separate the two “at least conceptually, if not practically”, he added.

For Gargash, the UAE’s ability to defend itself is not an alternative to diplomacy but a prerequisite for it.

“For the UAE, I think establishing deterrence was extremely important,” he said.

“Establishing deterrence is not a goal in of itself. Establishing deterrence is an important element that now today is leading us to greater, let’s say, opportunities with diplomacy.”

Gargash said the direct confrontation had fundamentally damaged confidence between Iran and its Gulf neighbours, crossing red lines that had previously held despite decades of tensions.

“I feel number one is the issue of trust between Iran and the Gulf countries was broken, clearly,” he said.

But he drew a distinction between restoring diplomatic relations and rebuilding trust.

“I think relations with Iran will come back, but it will be more functional. You have to rebuild trust, etc.”

The comments echo Gargash’s recent public remarks that geography makes continued engagement with Iran necessary even though restoring trust following the attacks could take years.

The war has reinforced rather than diminished the importance of the United States to Gulf security, Gargash said.

“I think the first thing I want to say is this war actually makes the US position in the Gulf more important not less important,” he said.

But he stressed that Gulf states could not simply rely on American military power for their defence.

“We understand that ultimately American boots and American power is not going to defend the region. American boots and American power will look after American interests.”

For a country the size of the UAE, he said, the starting point therefore had to be building its own capacity to defend itself while simultaneously pursuing diplomacy.

Gargash said the UAE continued to view its relationship with Washington as central to its foreign policy while pursuing what he described as “strategic autonomy”, including strong relationships across Asia.

He said China could play a constructive role by supporting maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz and using its influence to encourage a political settlement with Iran.

“If China can also impress on Iran, on a political also solution, it’s very, very welcome,” he said.

Dr Anwar Gargash acknowledged that relations between the UAE and Saudi Arabia were going through difficulties, but stressed that the security and economic interests of the two Gulf neighbours remained closely intertwined.

“I think our relationship today is not in its best form,” Gargash said in the Foreign Affairs interview. He added, however, that the UAE could not see itself as stable without a stable Saudi Arabia, given the countries’ shared border and interconnected security.

Gargash also acknowledged growing economic competition as Saudi Arabia pursues its transformation under Vision 2030, while the UAE builds on its long-established position as an open regional economy. But he rejected the idea that the two countries’ economic ambitions should be viewed as a zero-sum contest.

“We can both do well,” he said. “And in fact, if Saudi Arabia does well, we will do better and vice versa, and including other Gulf countries.”

Gargash said the two sides were working to manage and limit areas of disagreement, stressing that competition should remain contained. “Competition is important, but competition within bounds,” he said.

He argued that prolonged differences would benefit neither country nor the wider Middle East, saying unresolved disagreements were “not in the interest of Saudi Arabia, and it's definitely not in our interest, and it's not in the interest of the region.”

Gargash also reiterated the importance the UAE attaches to Saudi security, saying Abu Dhabi remained concerned whenever the Houthis targeted the kingdom. “Our sympathy is with the security of Saudi Arabia,” he said.

On Israel and Gaza, Gargash said the UAE had used its relationship with Israel to facilitate humanitarian assistance, putting UAE aid to Gaza at close to $4 billion.

The relationship also gave the UAE a voice on developments in the West Bank, he said, while acknowledging limits to Abu Dhabi’s ability to influence Israeli policy.

On the political question, Gargash reaffirmed the UAE’s support for Palestinian statehood.

“We’re very much part of the Arab consensus on an independent Palestinian state and a two-state solution,” he said.

He also called for reform of the Palestinian Authority so that it could play the role required of it in a future political settlement.

Asked about emerging regional security arrangements, including the Mecca Pact involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, Gargash returned to a broader theme: the UAE’s preference for a Middle East driven increasingly by economics rather than confrontation.

“I said our policy is geo-economic,” he said.

“And I think the future of the region is basically in prioritizing geoeconomic policies.”

He pointed to the UAE’s emphasis on economic growth, trade agreements and liberalisation as evidence of that approach.