Apple leakers: Predictions vs reality
Here's the lowdown on what leakers accurately predicted and where they missed the mark
Apple officially pulled the curtain on the iPhone 17 series at its “Awe Dropping” event on September 9, 2025.
With the final specs now confirmed, it’s the perfect time to revisit the swirl of leaks and rumors that dominated the lead-up.
How close were the predictions to reality — and which ones completely missed the mark?
What leakers got right
Introduction of the iPhone 17 Air:
Prediction: Leakers, including high-profile sources like Majin Bu, Ming-Chi Kuo, and Mark Gurman, predicted the introduction of an iPhone 17 Air to replace the iPhone 16 Plus, featuring a slim design (5-6mm thick) and a single rear camera.
Reality: Apple did launch the iPhone 17 Air with a super-thin 5.5mm profile, replacing the Plus model, and it features a single 48MP rear camera, as rumoured.
Camera design changes:
Prediction: Leakers accurately foresaw a redesign of the camera modules. The iPhone 17 Air was expected to have a single camera in a horizontal bump, the base iPhone 17 with a vertical dual-camera setup, and the Pro models with a triangular triple-camera arrangement in a horizontal bar. CAD drawings shared by Majin Bu, Fixed Focus Digital, and Ice Universe supported this.
Reality: The official designs align closely with these leaks, with the iPhone 17 featuring a vertical camera bump, the Air with a single-lens horizontal bump, and the Pro/Pro Max with a wider horizontal camera bar housing three lenses.
120Hz displays across the lineup:
Prediction: Rumours suggested all iPhone 17 models, including the base model, would feature 120Hz displays, with the Pro and Pro Max using ProMotion (1-120Hz adaptive refresh rate).
Reality: The iPhone 17 series indeed includes 120Hz displays across all models, with the base iPhone 17 getting a 120Hz refresh rate (though not confirmed if it’s adaptive) and the Pro models featuring ProMotion, as confirmed by @9to5mac.
A19 and A19 Pro Chips:
Prediction: Leakers claimed the iPhone 17 and 17 Air would use the A19 chip, while the Pro and Pro Max would get an A19 Pro chip, built on TSMC’s 3nm process.
Reality: Apple confirmed the A19 chip for the iPhone 17 and 17 Air, and the A19 Pro for the Pro and Pro Max models, matching the rumours.
Increased RAM
Prediction: Leaks suggested the iPhone 17 and 17 Air would have 8GB of RAM (up from 6GB in predecessors), while the Pro models would get 12GB.
Reality: The final specs confirm 8GB for the iPhone 17 and 17 Air, and 12GB for the Pro and Pro Max, as predicted.
24MP Front Camera:
Prediction: Multiple sources reported that all iPhone 17 models would feature a 24MP front camera, a significant upgrade from previous models.
Reality: Apple implemented the 24MP front camera across the entire iPhone 17 lineup, as leakers anticipated.
Display Sizes:
Prediction: Leakers predicted the iPhone 17 would have a 6.3-inch display, the iPhone 17 Air a 6.6-inch display, the iPhone 17 Pro a 6.3-inch display, and the iPhone 17 Pro Max a 6.9-inch display.
Reality: The official announcement confirmed these display sizes, with the iPhone 17 and 17 Pro at 6.3 inches, the 17 Air at 6.6 inches, and the 17 Pro Max at 6.9 inches.
eSIM-Only for iPhone 17 Air:
Prediction: Leakers, including Fixed Focus Digital, suggested the iPhone 17 Air would rely entirely on eSIM technology, potentially lacking a physical SIM slot in most markets.
Reality: The iPhone 17 Air is indeed eSIM-only in most regions, though some regulatory listings hinted at a SIM slot variant in specific markets like China, which caused minor confusion but was largely accurate.
iPhone 17 Pro Max thickness:
Prediction: Ice Universe claimed the iPhone 17 Pro Max would be 8.725mm thick (a 5% increase from the iPhone 16 Pro Max’s 8.25mm) to accommodate a larger 5,088mAh battery.
Reality: While the iPhone 17 Pro Max did get a battery capacity increase (5,000mAh), the exact thickness wasn’t confirmed in available data. The thickness is 8.75mm, as announced by Apple, so this prediction is spot on.
Vapour chamber cooling:
Prediction: A last-minute carrier leak reported by @9to5mac suggested the iPhone 17 Pro would feature vapour chamber cooling.
Reality: Apple did mention vapour chamber cooling, along with Face ID, Dynamic Island, Ultra Wideband (2nd Gen), IP68, N1 networking chip, and Dual Capture.
What leakers got wrong (or were uncertain about)
iPhone 17 Air availability in China:
Prediction: Fixed Focus Digital claimed the iPhone 17 Air might not launch in China due to its eSIM-only design.
Reality: Regulatory listings suggested a variant with a physical SIM slot would be available in China, contradicting the initial claim. The iPhone 17 Air did launch globally, including China, with a SIM slot variant for that market.
Material shift for Pro models:
Prediction: Leaks suggested the iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max would switch from titanium to aluminum frames, with a two-tone aluminum-and-glass back.
Reality: Apple retained titanium for the Pro and Pro Max models, contrary to these rumours. The base iPhone 17 and 17 Air use aluminum, but the Pro models stuck with the premium titanium finish.
Telephoto camera zoom on Pro models:
Prediction: Some leakers, like @ShishirShelke1, claimed the iPhone 17 Pro Max would feature a 48MP telephoto lens with 5-8x variable zoom.
Reality: The iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max have a 48MP Fusion camera, 48MP ultrawide with Macro, with 48-MP telephoto with 8X zoom, and 18-MP front camera, but not the 5-8x variable zoom predicted.
Charging speeds:
Prediction: Leaks suggested the iPhone 17 series would support faster charging, with claims of 50W MagSafe for the base model and 35W wired charging for the Pro Max.
Reality: Apple introduced 25W MagSafe charging across the lineup, not 50W, and wired charging remained at 25W, not reaching the rumoured 35W for the Pro Max. It uses the USB 3 charging format (up to 10 Gb/s), Qi2 25W (MagSafe) wireless charging.
Dynamic island redesign:
Prediction: A leak from @9to5mac claimed the iPhone 17 Pro would feature a redesigned Dynamic Island.
Reality: The iPhone 17 series retained the same Dynamic Island design as the iPhone 16 series, with no significant changes reported.
Battery sizes:
Prediction: Leakers estimated battery sizes, such as 3,692mAh for the iPhone 17, 2,800-3,100mAh for the 17 Air, and 5,088mAh for the 17 Pro Max.
Reality: The iPhone 17 Pro Max’s battery is close to the rumoured 5,000mAh, but the iPhone 17 Air’s battery is confirmed at 3,148mAh, slightly higher than some estimates. The base iPhone 17’s battery wasn’t explicitly confirmed but is likely in the 3,600-3,700mAh range, aligning with predictions.
Leaker accuracy overview
High-profile leakers like Majin Bu, Fixed Focus Digital, and Ice Universe were highly accurate on major features like the iPhone 17 Air’s introduction, camera layouts, display upgrades, and chipsets.
Their mock-ups closely matched the final designs. However, they missed on specifics like the Pro models’ material (titanium vs. aluminum), telephoto zoom capabilities, charging speeds, and some battery size estimates.
Predictions on vapour chamber cooling were spot on, while the dynamic island redesigns came from less consistent sources or were unconfirmed post-launch.
Overall, leakers nailed the broad strokes of the iPhone 17 series, particularly the lineup structure, camera designs, display upgrades, chipsets and vapor chamber cooling.
The iPhone 17 Air’s slim design and the 120Hz display across all models were standout predictions that proved spot-on, cementing the reliability of sources like Majin Bu and Ice Universe for major Apple leaks.
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