Why Dunesday could rival Barbenheimer — but not quite

Dubai: Remember Barbenheimer? Of course you do.

That strange summer weekend in 2023 when Greta Gerwig's bright pink Barbie and Christopher Nolan's serious Oppenheimer somehow created box office magic by releasing on the same day. It became the biggest movie event of the 21st century, complete with memes, merchandise, and a month-long global build-up.

Ever since, studios and fans have been desperately searching for the next Barbenheimer. Plenty of film clashes have come and gone, but none have captured that same lightning-in-a-bottle energy. Until now, potentially.

Both Avengers: Doomsday and Dune: Part Three are currently scheduled to release on 18th December 2026. Yes, the same day. Marvel's story from the Russo brothers going head-to-head with Denis Villeneuve's continuation of Paul Atreides' story. The internet has already named this showdown Dunesday.

On paper, it sounds huge. Two expensive sci-fi blockbusters with global appeal, both from directors with proven records, both guaranteed to draw enormous crowds. But this might not actually work.

Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore explains to SYFY WIRE, what has changed in Hollywood: "What was once thought to be a strategic no-no has become a marketing opportunity."

He continues: "In the world of movie marketing, the strategic chess game of the theatrical release calendar was always predicated on the notion of not opening a movie against a rival studio's film if that title fell within the same genre or had the same demographic appeal."

Traditionally, studios would release different types of films on the same date. If one studio had a sci-fi action film, the rival would launch a romantic comedy. But social media changed everything. As Dergarabedian notes: "In the modern age of social media, where memes and verbal shorthand for cultural events have become de rigueur, opening one tentpole with another has become an opportunity rather than a potential downfall."

Here's where Dunesday's possible problem shows up. Barbenheimer worked because the films were completely different. As Dergarabedian explains: "The entire world became enraptured by the fact that these two extraordinarily high-profile movies were opening on the same day. However, in that case these were two very different movies seemingly chasing very disparate demographics both age and gender-wise and yet it became almost compulsory that if you saw one of the movies you had to see the other and that played out well for both films."

Barbie was bright, funny, and aimed at women. Oppenheimer was dark, serious, historical, and traditional awards material. Fans of one weren't necessarily fans of the other, which meant people were genuinely trying something new by watching both. It felt like an event.

Avengers: Doomsday and Dune: Part Three? They're both sci-fi blockbusters. They share a lot of overlap in type and audience appeal. The same person excited for Marvel's story is probably also interested in Villeneuve's desert films.

Dergarabedian recognises this: "They share some overlap in genre and audience appeal."

Barbie and Oppenheimer both won at the box office. Barbie crossed $1 billion worldwide and won the Oscar for Best Original Song plus the first-ever Golden Globe for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement. Oppenheimer earned just over $975 million globally and received eight Academy Awards, including Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actor.

Can two sci-fi blockbusters pull off the same trick? It seems unlikely. More probably, they will take audience members from each other, with fans forced to choose rather than encouraged to see both.

Here's the other issue: neither studio has backed down yet, but that doesn't mean they won't. As of now, Dune: Part Three has been in production for close to six months but Warner Bros. hasn't released any promotional materials. Meanwhile, Avengers: Doomsday already has two teaser trailers featuring Chris Evans and Chris Hemsworth.

Looking at the current situation, Dune: Part Three seems more likely to move its date, perhaps delaying into 2027. After all, why risk a head-to-head battle when you could have the box office to yourself?

There's also competition from elsewhere. Tom Holland's Spider-Man: Brand New Day and Christopher Nolan's Odyssey are set to release within two weeks of each other. That pairing might actually work better as a Barbenheimer successor, given Nolan's involvement and the different types of films.

Dunesday sounds exciting in theory, but the basic problem remains: Barbenheimer worked because the films were complete opposites that went well together. Avengers and Dune are both massive sci-fi films competing for the same audience.

Studios might see it as a marketing opportunity, but it's just as likely to be a planning mistake where both films perform worse than they could have on their own.

So for now, we'll just have to wait and see if Dunesday makes history or a reminder about why Hollywood's old planning methods existed in the first place.

Areeba Hashmi is a trainee at Gulf News.