Gold jumps again in UAE—will this week bring price shocks or a surprise dip?

Gold prices in the UAE are expected to stay elevated this week, after global bullion rallied late Friday on the back of weak US jobs data and renewed tariff tensions.

With market sentiment firmly tilted toward safe-haven assets, UAE shoppers may see gold retail rates remain volatile—if not edge higher—as traders continue to assess the Fed’s rate path and the fallout from sweeping new US tariffs.

Dubai’s 22K gold rate jumped to Dh375.25 per gram on Friday evening—up from Dh368.25 earlier in the day, and well above the Dh365.25 quoted on Thursday. The sharp swing followed a spike in global bullion prices, which climbed over $65 an ounce to hit $3,363, nearing April's all-time high. (Check latest UAE gold prices here, alongside prices in Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait.)

The turnaround was triggered by a disappointing US jobs report, which showed only 73,000 new jobs added in July, with previous months revised sharply lower. The data reinforced concerns that the US economy may be losing momentum, raising expectations that the Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates as early as September.

That prospect drove US bond yields sharply lower, making non-yielding assets like gold more attractive. The yield on two-year Treasuries posted its biggest drop since 2023. At the same time, market swaps are now fully pricing in two Fed rate cuts by 2025, with a nearly 90% chance of one happening as soon as next month.

“The combination of weak labour data, falling yields, and geopolitical uncertainty is once again driving demand for gold,” said a Dubai-based precious metals analyst. “UAE shoppers should expect more intraday volatility in pricing this week.”

Adding to the upward pressure on bullion was President Donald Trump’s latest round of global tariffs, including a 35% rate on Canadian imports, reigniting trade tensions that had briefly eased earlier in the week. The new tariffs are among the steepest imposed since the 1930s, and investors worry they could further dent global economic growth.

Compounding the gold rally is continued weakness in global equities. Wall Street ended sharply lower Friday, with European and Asian markets following suit, capping the sixth straight day of losses—the longest losing streak in nearly a year. If this trend deepens, analysts expect more capital to rotate into safe-haven assets like gold.

Gold prices have already risen about 25% year-to-date, fuelled by Fed uncertainty, Trump’s trade stance, and broader geopolitical concerns.

For UAE residents eyeing a gold purchase, this week could be a waiting game. Until then, the only certainty for shoppers is volatility.