Dubai gold retailers predict prices ahead of Diwali shopping season

Dubai: Gold’s extraordinary rally shows no signs of shaking Dubai’s appetite for the precious metal. After crossing the $4,000 an ounce mark this week, the metal has helped push UAE retail prices to Dh482.75 per gram—a level that is now edging close to the Dh500 mark that once felt distant.

On Tursday morning, 22-karat gold was at Dh447.00 per gram, while 24-karat stood at Dh482.75. Meanwhile, the Indian gold rate for 24-karat gold was back up at ₹12,393 per gram, and the rate for 22-karat gold rose to ₹11,360 per gram Thursday morning. 

(Check latest UAE gold prices here, alongside prices in Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait.) 

Despite the price surge, shoppers have continued to buy jewellery, a trend that long-time retailers say underlines gold’s status as both an adornment and investment. Local retailers expect more price gains through the rest of the year, even if some correction comes later.

“If we look at the last 10 years, the last quarter of every year, the gold prices have gone up. So, I do expect it to go up,” said Arjun Dhanak, Director at Kanz. “There will be a correction, but I don’t expect it to be as significant.” Buyers hoping for a sharp drop could be waiting until early 2026, but even then, he does not see a return to 2023 price levels.

Viraj Shah, General Manager at Bafleh Jewellery echoed his sentiments. He said 2025’s price rally has already been dramatic. “We started off with around $3,000 an ounce and today it’s hovering around $4,000 plus. We definitely see 2025 closing at $4,100 levels.”

“Gold prices touching record highs only reaffirm gold’s undisputed status as a trusted, value-appreciating investment,” said Shamlal Ahamed, Managing Director – International Operations, Malabar Gold & Diamonds. “In fact, prices have surged by nearly 42% over the past ten months, delivering exceptional returns to investors. These factors make gold a tangible, accessible and valuable investment for buyers.”

International banks are also leaning bullish. Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its December 2026 gold price forecast to $4,900 per ounce from $4,300, citing strong Western exchange-traded fund inflows and likely central bank buying. “We see the risks to our upgraded gold price forecast as still skewed to the upside on net, because private sector diversification into the relatively small gold market may boost ETF holdings above our rates-implied estimate,” the bank said.

The metal has climbed 51% so far this year, supported by aggressive central bank buying, rising ETF demand, a weaker dollar and a wave of retail investors looking for protection against trade and geopolitical tensions.

Goldman expects central bank purchases to average 80 metric tons in 2025 and 70 tons in 2026, saying emerging market central banks are likely to keep diversifying reserves into gold. Western ETF holdings are expected to increase as the US Federal Reserve is seen cutting rates by 100 basis points by mid-2026.

For now, Dubai’s gold retailers say their customers remain undeterred. Buyers may walk away with less weight for the same amount spent, but the appetite to own gold, whether for weddings, festivals, or investment, remains intact. With Diwali and the year-end gifting season ahead, traders expect steady demand even as prices push higher.