Dubai landlords hold firm, listings rise but no panic selling

Dubai: Dubai’s property market is holding steady despite recent geopolitical tensions, with landlords staying put while buyers and tenants adjust their decisions.

Data from Smart Bricks shows that around 85% of landlords are not considering selling, even after weeks of heightened uncertainty. The absence of panic selling reflects what owners are seeing on the ground, where daily life and business activity continue without disruption.

“The absence of panic selling comes down to a mix of long-term conviction and what landlords are actually experiencing on the ground,” said Mohamed Mohamed, Founder and CEO of Smart Bricks.

He said most landlords continue to rely on Dubai’s core strengths, which remain intact.

“Most owners invested in Dubai because of its structural strengths and those fundamentals haven’t changed. So there’s no strong reason to exit based purely on headlines.”

Property listings have edged higher in recent weeks, though the increase remains gradual. Inventory has risen by just over 5%, with no sharp spike that would typically signal distress selling.

The composition of listings offers further insight. A significant share of the increase comes from properties that were already on the market and have been re-listed, suggesting recycling of supply rather than a wave of new sellers.

“The 5% rise in listings, without a sharp spike, looks much more like normal market churn than a sign of distress,” Mohamed said.

A closer look shows that about 65% of the additional listings are properties returning to the market after failing to sell earlier. That points to existing supply being recycled.

While landlords are holding their positions, buyers are changing how they deploy capital. Off-plan transactions now account for the majority of deals.

Roughly 63% of transactions in recent weeks have come from the off-plan segment, reflecting a clear shift in preference.

“The strong tilt toward off-plan transactions is being driven by a mix of continued long-term confidence and a more pragmatic view of the near-term rental environment,” Mohamed said.

Investors continue to back Dubai’s long-term growth story. At the same time, current rental conditions are shaping decisions.

“The immediate rental market is currently less attractive, so some buyers prefer to delay exposure to current operating conditions.”

Demand is moving toward projects with handovers from 2027 onwards, allowing investors to wait out near-term uncertainty.

The impact is more visible in specific segments. Short-term rental operators are seeing a shift, with occupancy and daily rates declining.

Around 5% of landlords are considering selling at discounted levels, with most of them in this segment.

“This behavior can hold as long as conditions remain stable. But if uncertainty starts to affect broader rental demand, vacancy, or financing conditions, then the pressure shifts from sentiment to cash flow, and that’s when more selective selling could emerge,” Mohamed said.

Prices have remained steady across both sales and rental listings. The adjustment is coming through the pace of transactions.

A Bayut spokesperson said there are no signs of price correction at this stage.

“Instead, any short-term adjustment is more likely to manifest through temporary slowdowns in transaction velocity, softer enquiry levels, or slightly longer decision cycles, rather than direct price declines.”

Buyer activity dipped briefly before recovering to more than 80% of normal levels within days. The pattern points to caution, not withdrawal.

“The data points to short-term caution followed by re-engagement,” the spokesperson said.

Tenant behaviour is shifting, renewals are becoming more common, while relocation decisions are more deliberate.

“Tenants may increasingly prioritise renewals over relocation, particularly where pricing remains within expected ranges,” the Bayut spokesperson said.

Affordability is becoming a bigger factor in decision-making. Moves are happening, but with more scrutiny on value.

Performance is becoming more asset-specific. Landlords are being forced to look closely at how their units compare with nearby options.

“The key question becomes why would a tenant choose this unit over others nearby,” Mohamed said.

Location and tenant profile are playing a larger role. Short-stay areas remain exposed to swings in travel demand. Established residential communities continue to attract longer-term tenants. Business districts are drawing professionals focused on convenience and amenities.

“In this environment, it’s less about pushing for the highest rent and more about maintaining occupancy with minimal downtime,” Mohamed said.

Exposure varies across the market. Investor-heavy communities, especially those with a high share of non-resident buyers, are more sensitive to changes in sentiment.

Transaction activity in these areas can slow more quickly when uncertainty rises.

Financing adds another layer. Communities with higher mortgage exposure may see demand soften if lending conditions tighten or approvals take longer.

Prime luxury assets are showing stronger resilience, supported by long-term capital and limited supply.

Dubai’s property market is not seeing a sharp shift in direction. Prices are holding, liquidity remains present and landlords are not rushing to exit.

“What we are seeing is not a market in retreat, but one that is becoming more selective,” Mohamed said.

The change is in behaviour. Buyers are more deliberate, tenants are more cautious and landlords are focusing more closely on how their assets compete. The next phase will depend on whether uncertainty begins to affect demand, financing or occupancy in a more sustained way.