ADNOC Gas, Fertiglobe named top picks in Bernstein’s MENA energy call

Dubai: Bernstein has initiated coverage on the MENA energy sector with a bullish view on UAE-listed ADNOC Gas and Fertiglobe, naming both among its top investment picks and pointing to strong cashflow visibility, sovereign backing and disciplined capital structures.

The global equity research firm, backed by Societe Generale and AllianceBernstein, said the UAE’s energy model stands out for its ability to convert state-owned assets into investable platforms with consistent returns, supported by long-term contracts and active capital allocation.

ADNOC Gas was rated Outperform with a price target of Dh4.08 per share, implying about 25% upside from prevailing levels as of April 9.

Bernstein described the company as a core platform for long-term gas growth, supported by contracted domestic supply and pre-sold LNG volumes that reduce execution risk and provide stable earnings visibility.

The report also pointed to ADNOC Gas’ role in anchoring domestic gas supply as the UAE targets self-sufficiency by 2030, with revenues structured in a way that resembles regulated income streams.

Fertiglobe was also assigned an Outperform rating, with a price target of Dh3.66 per share, the highest among analysts currently covering the stock. The target implies roughly 20% upside based on April 9 closing levels.

Bernstein highlighted Fertiglobe’s position as a low-cost nitrogen producer, supported by access to competitively priced gas feedstock and a diversified asset base across the UAE, Egypt and Algeria.

The firm also pointed to longer-term upside linked to the company’s role in low-carbon ammonia, an area expected to gain traction as global energy systems shift.

Bernstein’s broader thesis centres on the region’s sovereign-led energy model, where governments act as active capital allocators, using listed entities to generate predictable cashflows and dividends.

The firm noted that this approach creates unusually high earnings visibility across the energy value chain, spanning upstream, midstream, downstream and utilities.

It also highlighted ADNOC’s transition from a traditional national oil company into a network of listed subsidiaries, allowing capital recycling, improving transparency and drawing in international investors while maintaining strategic control.

The report comes at a time of heightened geopolitical tension, yet Bernstein pointed to the UAE energy sector’s resilience, supported by conservative fiscal policies and stable operating structures.

“State owned assets into investable platforms at speed,” the firm said, describing a model that continues to attract investor interest even during periods of external uncertainty.