Cheaper than the grid: Solar could bring power to nearly 400 million people for $11.4 billion till 2030, says World Bank report

Off-grid solar is the cheapest way to bring electricity to at least 398 million people still living without it, according to a World Bank-backed report.

That positions the technology as essential infrastructure rather than a "temporary fix".

Released Oct. 27 by the World Bank’s Energy Sector Management Assistance Program and industry association GOGLA, the report estimates that reaching those people will require $11.4 billion between 2027 and 2030, combining public subsidies with private financing.

Adoption is accelerating. Products sold by companies covered in the report reached 149 million people in 2025, up 26% from 118 million in 2023.

Those figures cover the tracked affiliate market, not the entire global solar industry.

The economic benefits extend beyond lighting. About 7.4 million people use off-grid solar for income-generating activities.

Over 15 years, the products generated an estimated $28 billion in additional customer income and savings. The surveyed market supports approximately 219,000 jobs.

Durability is improving its appeal: 95% of surveyed customers said their solar home systems remained functional four or more years after purchase.

But affordability remains the biggest obstacle.

Only one-third of households without electricity can afford an entry-level system through pay-as-you-go financing; another third can afford one only with difficulty.

Targeted subsidies and tax relief remain critical.

The findings coincide with a broader solar boom driven by cheaper panels, expensive conventional electricity and policy support.

Ember projects Africa will install a record 17 gigawatts in 2026, up 45%.

India’s installed solar capacity reached 164.59 gigawatts in July, while Pakistan’s Bestway Cement already gets more than one-quarter of its Chakwal plant’s electricity from solar.

These rooftop and industrial projects are not necessarily off-grid, but demonstrate solar’s widening economic appeal.

In the Philippines, the stakes are especially high for diesel-dependent islands.

Manila Bulletin reported that generation on National Power Corp.-served islands averages ₱18 per kilowatt-hour and reaches ₱62 in remote locations — that's compared to ₱5 to ₱8 per kWh on main grids, Department of Energy data shows.

Result: off-grid/microgrid solar energy market is expanding rapidly amid rising electricity costs and diesel dependency driving urgent shifts toward renewable power.

Industry assessments note that off-grid and remote island installations represent one of the fastest-growing segments in the country's renewable energy transition.

The Philippine off-grid solar energy market is projected to grow from $4.6 billion in 2025 to $11.9 billion by 2031, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.1%.

The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) approved ₱30.77 billion in missionary subsidies for 2026, with requests climbing further as diesel costs mount.

The government plans a dedicated off-grid Green Energy Auction in 2027, initially targeting 20 major island grids.