Back-to-school rush sends UAE-India airfares soaring: How travellers are cutting costs

Dubai: With schools in the UAE set to reopen later this month, families returning from summer holidays are facing some of the highest airfares of the season on routes from India, prompting many travellers to rethink how they book their journeys home.

Instead of flying on the most popular dates, many are returning earlier or later, choosing connecting flights, flying into different Gulf airports or even buying one-way tickets in the hope that fares would fall closer to departure.

Travel agents say demand remains concentrated on essential travel, while geopolitical uncertainty, rising fuel prices and reduced airline capacity continue to keep fares elevated.

For example, one-way Economy fares in the last weeks of August, which is when UAE schools reopen after the summer, are in the Dh1,200 (from Mumbai) to Dh3,705 (Kochi) ranges. In comparison, off-peak fares are sometimes available for anything between Dh350 to Dh650.

School starts on August 31 for most public and private schools.

Here is a breakdown of airfares between popular cities from India to major airports in the UAE.

"Fare reduction is not going to happen any time soon," said TP Sudheesh of Deira Tours and Travels.

He said passengers remain cautious about travelling through the Middle East, while many international airlines continue to adjust operations, putting additional pressure on available seats.

According to Sudheesh, higher oil prices and rising airline operating costs mean carriers have little incentive to reduce fares, particularly with strong return demand expected before schools reopen in late August.

"Many families, especially the low/middle income groups, are adjusting their return dates to coincide with lower-demand periods," he said.

"Returning a few days earlier or later helps them to get a cheaper rate than returning during the peak period. Searching for an indirect carrier or travelling back through a different airport in the Gulf also helps to get a comparatively better rate."

Afi Ahmed, Chairman of Smart Travels, said many travellers delayed booking their return flights, hoping fares would soften as the summer progressed.

"Many wait for the last minute for the rates to go down," he said, adding that fares briefly eased before climbing again.

He said one noticeable trend this year was families purchasing one-way tickets instead of traditional return fares.

"Normally, people take return tickets. This time, one-way tickets were commonplace. People bought one-way in the expectation that fares would come down at the last moment and the geopolitical situation would improve."

Ahmed added that fewer people travelled during the summer compared with last year, while some families opted to fly to neighbouring countries such as Sri Lanka for a holiday and then continued their onward journey to India. But these kind of travellers are also far and few in between.

For many travel agencies, leisure bookings have slowed sharply as families prioritise essential trips.

Ipshita Sharma of SCN Travel & More said enquiries for holidays have reduced considerably.

"Bare essential travel is happening. I have no enquiries for fun travel. Everybody is just going home and coming back. Leisure travel is almost nil."

She said travellers are being hit by a combination of high fares and uncertainty.

"Just as things were settling down, the fresh noises have started. And the rumour mills are churning, which doesn't help."

Sharma added that in some cases, flights now cost more than the holiday itself.

"The entire land package with five-star stay and private transfers is less expensive than four flight tickets. A five-star land package for four people is less expensive than four Etihad flights to get to Bali."

Travel experts say the back-to-school rush is coinciding with higher airline costs globally.

Jet fuel prices have risen sharply in recent weeks, with the International Air Transport Association's Jet Fuel Monitor showing the global average jet fuel price climbed to $158.77 per barrel for the week ending July 31. While it fell 0.8 per cent compared to the previous week, it has risen 76.4 per cent compared to last year.

Several airlines worldwide have also warned of mounting fuel costs, while aviation analysts say carriers continue to face higher labour, maintenance and operating expenses.

Adding to the pressure, airlines are increasingly using artificial intelligence to adjust ticket prices in real time based on demand, booking patterns, seat availability and competitor fares.

According to a recent Bloomberg report, the technology is helping airlines capture more revenue on busy routes while reducing the number of discounted seats available, although quieter flights could still see lower fares as carriers seek to fill empty seats.

Alena Iakina, founder of visarun.ai, said residents are still travelling but are changing how they book.

"People are still travelling, but they're changing how they book. They're more flexible with dates and open to less common routes."

She said almost 90 per cent of the company's bookings this month have been for Saudi Arabia, alongside a smaller number of trips to Australia, the UK and the US.

"We haven't seen a single Schengen booking in a few weeks. That really surprised us."

According to Iakina, travellers are avoiding some destinations because of ongoing uncertainty.

"We believe so, although it's also connected to higher costs. People are avoiding some routes and choosing destinations that feel safer at the moment." She expects fares to remain high during the first half of August before easing once the busiest travel period passes.