Ship traffic diverges at key chokepoints as Hormuz slows, Bab al-Mandab holds steady: What it means
Ship-tracking data reveal diverging routes at vital Gulf and Red Sea chokepoints
Maritime traffic patterns diverged sharply this week across two of the world’s most critical shipping lanes in the Middle East, with markedly fewer vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz while activity remained robust through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, according to ship-tracking data.
Between July 24 and 26, the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway between the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman through which about one-fifth of global oil passes — saw just 29 verified crossings.
Of those, 21 vessels were exiting the Middle East Gulf and eight were entering.
Split routing in Hormuz
Routing was split, with 14 using the Iranian unilateral scheme, 14 undetermined and one following the Hormuz Traffic Separation Scheme, MarineTraffic reported.
By contrast, the Bab al-Mandab Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea recorded 100 verified crossings, with traffic nearly balanced: 51 vessels entering the Red Sea and 49 exiting.
The vast majority — 90 — followed the established Traffic Separation Scheme, while 10 made "dark" transits (with transponders off).
Some vessels that had paused or reversed course ultimately proceeded, indicating operators are weighing risks in real time rather than abandoning the route.
Vital arteries
The Strait of Hormuz is a vital artery for oil and liquefied natural gas exports from major producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iran.
The Bab al-Mandab serves as the gateway between the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea, leading to the Suez Canal — a key route for Europe-bound cargo that has faced repeated disruptions in recent years.
The divergence comes amid heightened regional tensions, including US-Iran confrontations, Houthi activities linked to Yemen, and attacks or threats affecting commercial shipping.
Recent reports have noted reduced flows through Hormuz tied to security concerns, while Bab al-Mandab has seen fluctuating but sometimes resilient traffic as some operators reroute or assess alternatives, including longer journeys around Africa.
MarineTraffic, a leading global ship-tracking service that uses Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and other intelligence, highlighted the patterns in a Monday post that included animated visualizations of vessel movements.
Geopolitical risks
The data underscore how geopolitical risks continue to influence commercial routing decisions, with potential ripple effects on global energy prices and supply chains.
No immediate claims of new attacks were tied directly to the July 24-26 period in the post, but the lower Hormuz numbers align with broader reports of cautious navigation in the area.
Shipping companies have previously diverted vessels, used armed guards or gone dark in high-risk zones to mitigate threats.
Analysts monitor such chokepoints closely because sustained disruptions could exacerbate energy market volatility.
The figures represent a snapshot and can shift with new AIS signals or changing conditions.
