Israel-Iran ceasefire holds — but is the conflict really over? What comes next?

Dubai: The exchange of missiles have stopped for now.

After 12 days of escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran, a fragile ceasefire brokered by US President Donald Trump has taken hold, pausing a conflict that had brought the Middle East to the brink of a wider war.

But while the guns have fallen silent, the questions have not. What was gained — or lost — in this latest round of confrontation? Did either side emerge strategically stronger, or merely more entrenched? And is this the beginning of a diplomatic thaw, or merely an intermission before the next escalation?

As analysts sift through the aftermath, opinions remain divided. Some view the confrontation as a carefully calibrated display of strength, while others see it as a near-miss that exposed vulnerabilities on all sides.
What is clear, however, is that the deep-rooted tensions that sparked the conflict remain unresolved.

Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council, says that Iran’s military capabilities have been severely degraded and that Israel may be nearing its own limits after days of missile exchanges.

He also sees the potential for diplomacy, possibly mediated by countries like Oman or even China. But Panikoff warns that a broader solution to Iran’s nuclear ambitions remains elusive.

“The balance of power in the region has certainly shifted towards Israel’s favour and away from Iran,” he said.

A ceasefire with caveats
Trump declared that the “war seems to be over — for now,” following a series of high-stakes exchanges that saw both Israel and Iran claiming the ceasefire occurred on their own terms.
But events leading up to the pause suggest otherwise.

On Saturday night, the US entered the conflict directly, striking Iranian nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan — attacks that Trump described as having “completely obliterated” the facilities. In response, Iran launched missile strikes on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the largest US military installation in the region, a move that raised fears of a broader war engulfing the Gulf.

Even as the ceasefire took effect, tensions flared again. Israel launched a retaliatory strike on Sunday after claiming two Iranian ballistic missiles entered its airspace. The missiles were intercepted, but Israel responded by targeting a radar facility near Tehran.

Trump appeared frustrated by the continued Israeli action, telling reporters he was “really unhappy that Israel went out this morning.” He later posted on Truth Social: “Israel is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly ‘plane wave’ to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the ceasefire is in effect!”

What did Israel achieve?
For years, Israel has viewed Iran as its top existential threat but has never directly struck Tehran’s nuclear infrastructure. This changed during the 12-day confrontation, with Israeli forces reportedly damaging surface targets at key nuclear facilities, while US airstrikes were said to have destroyed underground enrichment capabilities at Natanz and Fordow.

Israel claims it significantly degraded Iran’s nuclear capabilities, including the Isfahan nuclear complex. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that Israel had delivered a “clear message,” and warned that any attempt by Iran to rebuild its nuclear programme would be met with force.

Did Iran withstand the blow?
While Israel and the US claimed success, independent verification of the damage remains unavailable. Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), stated that no full assessment had yet been conducted. “Given the explosive payload utilized, and the extreme vibration-sensitive nature of centrifuges, very significant damage is expected to have occurred,” Grossi said.

Still, questions remain — including the status of 400 kilograms (880 pounds) of highly enriched uranium that the IAEA says Iran currently possesses. Tehran, meanwhile, insists its right to a peaceful nuclear programme remains intact and has accused Washington of colluding with Israel — a country not signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Mohammad Eslami, head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation, downplayed the long-term impact of the strikes. “The plan is to prevent interruptions in the process of production and services,” he told Mehr News, indicating Iran was prepared for such attacks and had already begun restoration efforts.

A fragile peace
Despite the ceasefire, the rhetoric on both sides remains uncompromising. Trump vowed that Iran’s nuclear ambitions would not be allowed to resume. Netanyahu echoed the warning: “If someone in Iran tries to restore that program, we will act with the same determination, the same power, to cut off any such attempt.”

In the meantime, Qatari political analyst Dr. Ubaidah Al Shammari said the ceasefire between Iran and Israel “remains fragile at this stage,” warning that violations by both sides are likely to continue — albeit within limited scope and under a controlled threshold.

“The cease-fire should not be mistaken for a resolution,” Al Shammari noted. “What we’re seeing is more of a freeze in escalation rather than an end to the conflict or to indirect confrontations.

”He added that Israeli breaches remain likely, particularly as they serve as a calculated pressure tactic that stops short of provoking a full-scale confrontation.

For now, a shaky peace holds. But with both Tehran and Tel Aviv refusing to shift from their long-standing positions, and Washington drawn deeper into the fray, many observers warn that the ceasefire may prove to be only a temporary lull in a conflict far from over.