Leaders must look to strengthen security ties

Dubai: In what could be the most crucial GCC summit since Iraq occupied Kuwait two decades ago, the GCC leaders gather on Monday in Kuwait to discuss a host of issues and challenges and meet overdue commitments.

The GCC Secretary-General Abdul Rahman Al Attiyah described the two-day meeting as an "extraordinary summit that would be held at a time that the regional states were in great need for addressing various crucial issues."

Many of the issues to be tackled in Kuwait are economic and financial, including approval of the GCC joint monetary council, launching of the GCC common currency and strengthening of the joint GCC Gulf market, which was launched two years ago at the Doha summit.

But the major challenge is the lack of a serious breakthrough in terms of security and defence integration. It is a goal which has eluded the alliance for the past three decades.

Recent study

The Economist Intelligence Unit in a recent study stated that the GCC has experienced rapid economic, demographic and social changes.

Since 1998, the GCC's real GDP has expanded by an annual average of 5.2 per cent, and its population has risen from 28 million in 1998 to an estimated 39 million in 2008. It is expected to hit 53 million in 2020.

The GCC's collective GDP is close to $1 trillion and is expected to rise to $2 trillion in 2020, making it an economic and energy powerhouse in a region that stretches from Morocco to Indonesia.

This is augmented by the GCC's huge sovereign wealth funds, estimated at $2 trillion, and its huge oil and gas reserves estimated at $18.3 trillion at $50 a barrel and $37.7 trillion at $100 a barrel.

Yet the major challenge for the GCC remains its failure to transfer its economic power into security and defence might, which could be used to influence and deter foes without relying on imported security.

The 30th summit comes on the heels of major developments in the GCC, which has seen encroachment on its security by Iran, Iraq and Yemen.

Since the last summit in Muscat, the GCC has seen its security challenged and has had to adjust to the change in US leadership, along with the international economic meltdown.

To exacerbate this tense regional security dilemma, we add the war in Yemen, which is threatening Saudi national security, and in extension GCC collective security, as tens of thousands of Saudis evacuate villages bordering Yemen.

But the most challenging issues facing the GCC have been its failure to formulate a comprehensive strategy in its collective approach to an emboldened Iran, the fragmented and failed state in Iraq, and Al Qaida cells which have targeted some of its member states, mainly Kuwait, last year.

The ascendance of the Obama administration, with its ambiguous plans for a security umbrella to be extended to cover the GCC states, its plans to withdraw its military from Iraq, its perplexing relationship with Iraq, and its stalled drive in the Middle East peace process in the face of Israeli stonewalling, has not mitigated the tense security situation in the region.

Vulnerability

This summit will be an awkward awakening for the leaders. The Kuwaiti crisis has been an example of the GCC's vulnerability and limited capability as an alliance in terms of security and defence.

The GCC states have also not completely thawed tensions with Iraq, and there is a lot of collective apprehension over Iran and its plans.

The success of the GCC alliance to reach milestone achievements in terms of economic integration cannot mask the divergent views among its members or its limited breakthrough in defence and security spheres.

We witnessed the unsettling disputes last summer between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over the location of the GCC Central Bank and the UAE's move to withdraw from the common currency, which dealt a blow to its planned launch.

That was followed by the Saudis banning Emirati citizens from entering Saudi Arabia using their civil identity cards.

Needless to say, such simmering tensions do not strengthen the strategic, trade and investment ties among GCC members.

This summit should remind the GCC states that they need to resolve their differences, forge a more credible alliance and marry their skillful and shrewd investment and financial acumen. They should also look to formulate a collective viable approach towards Iraq, Iran, foreign policy and develop a real and credible economic integration which cannot be lasting without political will.

We have to remember that we continue to live in a dangerous and uncertain time and in a tough neighbourhood. The failure to undertake such necessary steps by the leadership will doom the alliance to its current stalemate.

The summit has to be a wake-up call for all concerned to put the GCC on the right path to fulfil the long overdue ambitions and aspirations of its leadership and people alike.

- Dr. Abdullah Alshayji is Professor of Political Science at Kuwait University