Kerala: Is Nilambur going to be the most important by-election in state's history?

So, the most important by-election in Kerala of recent times is all set to happen in Nilambur, and for three of those candidates a win or a loss matters quite a bit. Because this is the very election that will set up the tone and outcome for what’s going to happen in about 10 months, when Kerala goes to the polls for the real thing – the 2026 assembly elections.

Can the CPM’s M. Swaraj make a return to the Kerala assembly after that eye-opening defeat in the 2021 state elections? For Swaraj personally, it was a definite setback after being hailed as one of the most promising of CPM’s next-gen leaders. (There was even talk of a ministerial berth if he had won…)

So, a win in Nilambur will put him back on track, at the very least within the Party hierarchy. Swaraj has made all the right noises during his election campaign, and not engaging in the kind of vitriolic comments that have made him a hate figure in some quarters.

It’s the same backdrop of loss and possible redemption that Swaraj’s main opponent, Aryadan Shoukath from the Congress, is seeking. He lost the 2016 assembly election to P.V. Anvar – and had never seemed in a position to recover his standing in Nilambur.

The political punters place him as the most likely to win this time, helped by solid work at the ground level by his party and especially from the likes of senior Congress leaders Adoor Prakash and P.C. Vishnunadh. Plus, of course, the charisma brought in by Congress’ latest ‘youth stars’, Shafi Parambil and Rahul Mamkootathil. (As for Rahul, one can discount the late night visit he made to meet P.V. Anvar without getting the go-ahead from his party chiefs.)

For an outsider, it was as if Aryadan Shoukath was not doing much of the talking when it comes to getting his message through to the voters. But he sure had Shafi and Rahul doing all – or much – of the talking.

Now, comes the third candidate in the fray – P.V. Anvar and with his unmistakable air of ‘love me or hate me’ vibe. Anvar has been talking for a long time now – and all through the campaigning in the by-election, he’s been on cruise control in talking even more. But will it be asking too much of the ex-MLA to be a decisive factor in this by-election? Anvar – whose two themes are about ‘Pinarayism’ and the issue of wild animals running rampant - obviously wants to think he will be the one swaying the election. In one way or the other…

There is a candidate put up by the BJP, but that’s about as inconsequential as it gets.

So, voters in Nilambur will find it’s all a three-way shootout – whom are they going to pick?

The winner - and losers – that they vote for will have a say even after the results are out on June 23. Because that’s when the real contest starts – the one pitching Kerala CM Pinarayi Vijayana against the CM-in-waiting V.D. Satheesan…

That’s going to be the one to watch out for.