Kerala Nilambur election: If P.V. Anwar comes in second, that will be a win

Is P.V. Anwar trying to learn from Elon Musk? In how to turn friends into foes – and potential friends into sworn enemies.

Musk is doing quite a bit of that with US President Donald Trump these past few days. And in Kerala, there is no stopping Anwar, who has taken up a bitter war of words against V.D. Satheesan, the Leader of the Opposition in the Kerala Assembly. And Anwar is giving equal time to who he sees as his arch-foe – Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.

All this while the by-election in the Nilambur constituency edges closer to the voting day on June 19…  

One wonders whether Anwar is working on some script that only he can read? Because why would he even want to talk about the Congress and the UDF having to remove Satheesan for Anwar to join the bloc? And then, repeating his claims to be considered as a minister – if the UDF wins the next election.

Taking on Satheesan is probably the most ill-advised move that Anwar can make under the current political circumstances. Because even Anwar’s biggest fans in Kerala and Nilambur will still insist that Anwar’s best future prospect would have been as part of the UDF (whether the bloc wins the May 2026 state elections or not).

Now, Kerala politics is known for the ease with which bitter foes end up shaking hands to take on a common enemy. (One could even picture Anwar’s hands being aloft by Satheesan and Muslim League leader P. K. Kunhalikutty on either side of him in a group pose – if Anwar does end up in the UDF. With big smiles playing on their faces and no memory of anything nasty from the past. In Kerala politics, anything is possible…)

No one is giving P. V. Anwar much of a chance in the Nilambur by-election, even though there is no way anyone can predict with assurance that the winner will be the LDF or UDF candidate. The election should be decided on the thinnest of margins – and the votes that Anwar will garner having the decisive say in the final outcome.

Now, if Anwar is placed second in the polls, that too will count as a win for him. Anwar still has his sway among the voters there, and the way he’s been taking up some of their issues – especially related to development – it feeds right into where it matters. The voters’ psyche…

So, if he turns up second best, that would still matter. Because at the very least, his influence cannot be discounted in the May 2026 elections, in and even beyond Malappuram.

Which means the UDF will have to keep courting him, and hope that he would tone down his criticism of Satheesan. Is that even possible? Or would he - like Musk vs. trump - is doing keep firing away and burn all bridges with the UDF camp?

The voters of Nilambur will finally get to decide the fortunes of not just the Congress and the CPM in the coming days – will they turn their backs on the ‘Nilambur Sultan’?  

June 19 can’t come soon enough for politics in Kerala…