World in the year ahead

For every danger in the world, there is an opportunity. And for every opportunity, there is often danger. It is with both hope and fear that I anticipate the events of the New Year. The Middle East is the classic example of both opportunity and danger.

The promised elections in Iraq on January 30 is a major first step towards normalisation. No one in the world, and especially the Muslim world, can be sanguine about the occupation of a major Arab nation by the world's last and only superpower. The earlier that occupation ends and is replaced by a truly legitimate government, the better.

If a federal Iraq can emerge, allowing for majority rule that protects the rights of Kurds, Shiites and Sunnis equally, a democracy will be born in a part of the world long governed without consensus. And if that emerges, 2005 will be looked back upon as truly groundbreaking. On the other hand, if the elections are undermined by violence, sharpening Iraqi internal ethnic disputes and creating the foundation for civil war, 2005 will be remembered as a far darker turning point in the Middle East.

In another troubled spot in the Middle East, the dynamics of power is undergoing a fundamental change. There are those who claim that the death of Palestinian President Yasser Arafat allows for fresh negotiations between younger Palestinian leaders and an Israeli government that had earlier refused to negotiate with Arafat. If the elections for the new President of the Palestinian National Authority succeed in leading to a substantive dialogue centering on a two-state solution, a détente may emerge. Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, once a major obstacle to peace, has initiated a withdrawal from Gaza.

If the Gaza withdrawal is an indication of a new willingness on his part to compromise with the new leader of Palestine, there may be a real opportunity for breakthrough in one of the longest and most difficult disputes.

Remarkable parallels

And if there is a breakthrough in Palestine, why not the sub-continent? Historically, the partition of Palestine and India have remarkable parallels - a religious partition, in the same year, under the same colonial control resulting in two of the most prolonged and dangerous regional disputes that plagued the world for half a century. I see an opportunity of exploring ideas that will allow a meaningful dialogue on the status of Jammu and Kashmir that can, God willing, bring both stability and justice for the people of those troubled states.

I also see opportunity for the future of democracy in my homeland in 2005. The United States has reiterated the rhetoric of democracy all over the world, certainly in Iraq and most recently and most notably in Ukraine. Democratic values cannot be applied selectively. If the world rallies around democracy in Ukraine, there is the hope that it can rally around democracy in Pakistan.

There are calls for taking Pakistan towards full democracy. If the military regime in Pakistan considers holding party based elections in 2005, and if those elections proceed freely and fairly, 2005 may be remembered in Pakistan as the year that democracy was given another chance.

That is my hope; that is my dream. For if the will of the Pakistani people for democracy is not soon honoured, the consequences for Pakistan and the world may be most unfortunate.

The cloud over these positive political forecasts is a dangerous economic situation. Deficit financing in the United States has resulted in the destabilisation of the US dollar, which serves as the currency of the globalised economic order.

With the Bush administration's reform proposals of the US Social Security system possibly causing America another trillion dollars in debt, the further weakened dollar could increase dangers to global economic development. It's difficult for Washington to ask the world to underwrite its luxurious consumption habits. A nation that demands fiscal responsibility in Third World economies must now practise what it preaches.

As this year ends, I look forward to the New Year with hope. As dangerous as the world climate appears, there is a remarkable opportunity for dramatic change. The window of opportunity is open, but it is not wide. Whether the world can seize this moment will determine the events of New Year and set the course for the still young New Century.

Benazir Bhutto is a former prime minister of Pakistan