Will November mark the start of winter in the UAE? Weather forecast explained

Dubai: In November, the UAE enters its second transitional period of the year, signalling a gradual shift from the warmer autumn conditions toward the cooler winter season. According to the National Center of Meteorology (NCM), this month is typically characterised by mild daytime temperatures and noticeably cooler nights. Compared to October, both maximum and minimum temperatures drop by around 4 to 6 degrees Celsius.

This cooling trend occurs as the apparent movement of the sun shifts southward, reducing the amount of solar radiation reaching the region. As November progresses, the Siberian high-pressure system begins to extend gradually toward the Arabian Peninsula, especially during the second half of the month, further reinforcing the cooling pattern.

Temperatures can feel particularly cool at night, especially over mountainous and inland areas where the effect of radiational cooling is strongest.

During November, wind patterns also undergo a distinct transformation. Southeasterly winds generally prevail during the early mornings, later shifting to westerly or northwesterly directions during the daytime.

At times, wind speeds can increase significantly, especially when the country experiences passing storm systems or the development of convective clouds. Strong gusts may stir up dust and sand, particularly in open desert and interior regions. The mean wind speed for November typically hovers around 10.6 km/h, though much stronger winds have been recorded in past years reaching as high as 97 km/h at Al Ruwais in 2013.

Relative humidity tends to rise during November, especially during the early morning hours. This increase results from moderate air masses moving across the Arabian Gulf toward the UAE, bringing additional moisture that contributes to the formation of fog and mist.

Coastal areas are most prone to these conditions, particularly when nighttime temperatures drop and humidity levels climb. The mean relative humidity during November averages around 57 per cent, with maximum values ranging between 76 per cent and 85 per cent, and minimum values between 29 per cent and 39 per cent.

Although fog is more frequent in the warmer months, the calm and moist conditions of November mornings make fog and mist an occasional occurrence, especially near coastal and low-lying areas.

In terms of temperature statistics, the mean air temperature in November ranges between 23.9°C and 26.4°C. The mean maximum temperature typically falls between 29°C and 32.1°C, while the mean minimum temperature ranges from 18.8°C to 21.5°C.

Historically, the highest maximum temperature recorded during November reached 40.1°C at Sweihan in 2024, while the lowest minimum temperature dropped to 4.1°C at Jabal Jais in 2009. These figures illustrate the broad variation in temperatures that can occur across the country due to differences in elevation, proximity to the coast, and daily weather conditions.

The month can also see the passage of upper-air disturbances carrying cold air masses across the region. These systems often lead to cloud development and, at times, rainfall. When cumulus clouds build up, rainfall intensity may increase, occasionally accompanied by fresh to strong winds and dust or sand. The highest amount of rain ever observed in November was 211.4 mm in Dalma in 2013.

Overall, November marks the onset of more comfortable weather across the UAE. Daytimes remain pleasantly warm, while evenings and nights become refreshingly cool.

Winds shift direction as the season changes, humidity increases slightly during early mornings, and fog and light rain become more likely. This period represents a gentle transition toward winter, with the landscape and atmosphere reflecting the balance between warmth and the emerging coolness of the months ahead.