Weather forecast: Will it rain over Eid holidays in UAE? Here's what NCM says

Dubai: Residents across the UAE should expect wet weather during Eid Al Fitr 2026. The National Centre of Meteorology has forecast cloudy skies and rainfall across different areas of the country from Saturday 21 March through Tuesday 24 March.

A combination of meteorological systems is converging over the region to make this Eid break one of the wetter on record. The National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) has identified an extension of an upper-level atmospheric depression, a surface low-pressure system, and humid southeasterly winds pulling moisture in from the Arabian Sea. An upper jet stream is further channelling cloud bands westward across the country, setting the stage for overcast skies and periodic rainfall throughout the holiday period.

The unsettled pattern begins building before the Eid break itself. From Wednesday, 18 March, expect partly cloudy to overcast conditions, with light rainfall likely over western coastal areas and islands during the daytime. Temperatures will dip noticeably, and northwesterly winds gusting up to 40 km/h could stir up blowing dust, reducing visibility on the roads, so factor in extra travel time.

Thursday and Friday maintain a similar mood: intermittent cloud cover, isolated showers in the west and along the coast, and brisk southeasterly to northeasterly winds reaching 35–40 km/h. Friday brings a slight uptick in temperatures, but the cloud cover lingers and scattered showers remain a possibility across different parts of the country.

Saturday 21 March through Tuesday 24 March is when conditions are expected to be most active. The NCM has officially forecast rainfall of varying intensity across multiple areas of the UAE during this window, rating the overall outlook as a moderate weather condition.

Cumulonimbus clouds will form intermittently as the low-pressure system and jet stream work in tandem, meaning showers could arrive quickly and vary significantly in strength from one area to the next. Some regions may see light, passing drizzle while others experience heavier downpours. Winds during this period will continue to gust up to 40 km/h at times, and the Arabian Gulf and Oman Sea will see rough to moderate wave conditions, relevant for anyone planning a coastal or marine Eid outing.

With wet roads, reduced visibility, and gusty winds all in play, a few simple precautions go a long way. Slow down and increase following distances while driving, particularly on highways and bridges where surface water can build quickly. If you're planning outdoor gatherings or desert activities, keep a close eye on NCM updates as conditions can shift rapidly during active convective periods. Beachgoers and boaters should check marine advisories before heading out, given elevated sea states across both coastlines.