U.S. poised for rapid deployment

The U.S. military is poised to begin a rapid and visible buildup of forces in the Gulf early next month involving 50,000 combat forces, aircraft, armour and tens of thousands of reserves, senior defence officials said.

The escalation would give U.S. President George W. Bush the option of beginning combat operations in late January or early February, after the United Nations Security Council meets January 27 to hear the first substantive report from Hans Blix, the UN's chief weapons inspector, on whether Iraq possesses weapons of mass destruction.

One senior defence official said the Pentagon had been quietly moving heavy equipment for months as part of a buildup that was kept low-key to avoid alarming the international community and creating the impression that the Bush administration had prejudged the UN inspections process.

"But without a doubt, within the next week or so, you'll see more muscle movements than you've seen up to now," the official said.

"We've been below the threshold of pain of the international community. I think you're going to see a strategy change to one of demonstrated resolve, if not overt coercion."

He and other defence officials said there was far more heavy equipment in the region than has been reported, even with the Pentagon acknowledging the presence of about 60,000 troops and 400 aircraft.

Two 62,000-ton cargo ships, the USNS Watson and the USNS Charlton, sailed into the Gulf without fanfare within the past 10 days, another official said.

Statistics supplied by the Military Sealift Command show that cargo ships have moved almost 1.6 million square feet of material from the United States and the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia to the Gulf since October 1, including 1,290 20-foot containers loaded with ammunition, 18,130 tons of ammunition not in containers, tanker tucks, helicopters, bridge sections and watercraft.

But movement from the United States of Air Force fighter wings and heavy ground divisions, and the potential redeployment of aircraft carriers from U.S. ports, will be far harder to conceal than the departures of the cargo ships, because they'll have an immediate impact on thousands of families and dozens of communities, officials said.

The prepositioning that's taken place to date, another defence official said, was designed to reduce the time necessary to assemble an invasion force from four to six months to four to six weeks, or less.

The official said 200,000 to 250,000 reserves could be necessary, not only to support a military campaign, but also to fulfill security missions at military bases in the United States that didn't exist during the Gulf War 11 years ago.

Analysts inside and outside the government expect next month's buildup to use Air Force C-17 and C-5 wide-body airlifters and 41 cargo ships from the Military Sealift Command to move armoured, mechanised and air-mobile Army Divisions based in the United States and Germany.

A brigade from the 3rd Infantry Division, based at Fort Stewart, Georgia., is already in Kuwait, and the division's commander said his entire force was ready to deploy if called.

Army officials in Europe are also assuming that forces from the 1st Armoured Division and the 1st Infantry Division, based in Germany, will deploy, in addition to the Southern European Task Force, an airborne brigade based in Vicenza, Italy.

"There are certainly some attractive features to the geographic location," one defence official said. "You're halfway there."

The 101st Airborne Division, based at Fort Campbell, Kentucky, is also likely to deploy with dozens of Apache helicopter gunships and Blackhawk troop transports. "If you're talking about war with Iraq," the official said, "you're going to need a certain amount of mobility and a certain amount of firepower, like the 101st."

The buildup is also expected to involve elements of the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force, with 17,500 troops, based at Camp Pendleton, California It has been told to be ready to move as soon as the first of the year.

The Air Force is expected to move F-117 stealth fighters, which played a critical role in the opening of the 1991 Gulf War, from Holloman Air Force Base in New Mexico to Al Jaber Air Base in Kuwait.

The Air Force has already signalled that it intends to use its other stealth aircraft, the B-2 bomber, from new maintenance shelters on Diego Garcia and from bases in Britain. B-52 and B-1 bombers would also fly from Diego Garcia and Britain.

Additional F-16 and F-15 fighter wings based in the United States are also expected to deploy. One retired Air Force officer said he expected the opening night of any air war Bush might order to include 500 to 1,000 sorties, with most aircraft capable of striking multiple targets per mission with precision-guided bombs.

The Navy already has two aircraft carriers deployed, with the Constellation in the Gulf and the Truman in the Mediterranean. The Kitty Hawk, based in Yokosuka, Japan, is also within a week's sail of Iraq.

But the Navy could have as many as six carriers in the region fairly quickly, most likely basing three in the Red Sea and three in the Gulf. There are 50 fighter aircraft on each carrier.

The British, meanwhile, are also preparing to move forces to the Gulf. The Defence Ministry this week took steps to contract with ships to carry armoured vehicles and supplies to the Gulf.

The Central Command, led by Army Gen. Tommy Franks, would have overall control of all military operations in the Gulf Theatre.