Upcoming Arab summit stirs a nest of problems

Age-old rivalries and more recent slights threaten to undermine critical March conference set in Lebanon even before it takes off

The upcoming Arab summit in Beirut, scheduled for March 2002, has caused a bundle of dormant inter-Arab disputes to erupt and doom the already shaky conference. It is clear from the start, that the Arabs, quarrelling among themselves over long-time rivalries, will fail to reach any satisfying solution to the ongoing Israeli onslaught and the declared war on President Yasser Arafat and his Palestinian Authority.

The first fundamental crisis confronting the conference lies between the pan-Shiite Amal Party in Lebanon and Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi. Headed by Master Speaker Nabih Berri, Amal accuses Gaddafi of having captivated its founder and spiritual leader, Imam Mousa Al-Sadr, during the latter's visit to Tripoli in August 1978.

Sadr's ill-fated visit had been made with the aim of convincing Gaddafi to revert his decision to cut off nearly $80 million in cash assistance to the PLO. Reportedly, Sadr quarrelled with Gaddafi and has not been seen or heard from since.

The Shiites of Lebanon refuse to believe Sadr is dead and ever since, have demanded to know his whereabouts. By coming to Beirut next March, Gaddafi runs the high risk of assassination at the hands of Shiite fanatics. Hundreds of former Shiite militia warriors, currently disarmed, would jump at an opportunity to kill someone whom they consider as much an enemy to their cause as Israel itself.

The Lebanese security, it is feared, might not be able to protect its Libyan guest. Last week, accusations shot back and forth between Tripoli and Shiite circles in Beirut, with the Deputy President of the Higher Shiite Council Abdul Amir Quabalan declaring that Gaddafi would only be welcome in Beirut, "if Imam Sadr is brought along with him."

Otherwise, he would be advised not to come. The Libyan leader responded, in a surprisingly calm manner, that he would prefer that the summit be moved to Egypt, to avoid causing civil disturbances. Lebanese President Emille Lahoud, however, has refused to change the scheduled summit and Syria has seconded his opinion. If Gaddafi does attend, Nabih Berri will definitely boycott the conference and Foreign Minister Mahmoud Hammoud, a hard-core Berri protégé, might also not show up in protest.

Other wartime problems that might re-surface are the actual presence on Lebanese territory of Syrian President Bashar Al Assad and Arafat. The Lebanese Maronites, just like the Shiites, have old scores to settle with their former Civil War enemies.

Radical Christian groups loyal to the arrested militia leader Samir Gagega or the assassinated President-elect Bashir Jumayyel might be more than willing to strike at Arafat - a traditional enemy whom they were unable to nail during his 10-year residency in Beirut. Many hard-core Christians consider Arafat blameworthy for the 17-year Civil War, for having engaged in combat with Christian forces on Lebanese soil and given Israel the pretext to invade Lebanon in 1982.

Massacres

Under Arafat's orders, hundreds of Christians were killed in gang war, assassinated, or taken prisoner to Syria. Many find it hard to forget the image of PLO stalwarts patrolling the streets of Beirut, armed to the teeth on Arafat's orders, harassing Christian passers-by. Since leaving Beirut in 1983, Arafat, fearing for his life, has not visited the country.

Arafat added insult to injury in 1993 by declaring that he will govern Gaza and the West Bank just like he "governed Lebanon for 10 years."

Lebanon's first post-war President Elias Hrawi showed Maronite resentment to Arafat by refusing to meet or shake hands with him during the Arab League conference in 1996. His words nearly 10 years ago might cost him his life today - for in the complex web of the Lebanese underground, everyone is armed, and nobody is safe from assassination. This applied to Civil War Lebanon and continues to apply to Lebanon today.

Bashar Al Assad, however, although holding no responsibility for the war anguish, is nevertheless his father's son and the highest embodiment of controversial Syrian hegemony in Lebanon. Even more so than Arafat, Assad's life might be in danger, for hundreds of former militia members, still looking for trouble, would be longing to strike at a traditional enemy.

Those Maronites who suffer from Syrian troop dominance in Lebanon and those who complain of having lost a loved on in Syrian jails or on the battlefield might jeopardise the president's safety.

His father, the late Hafez Al Assad, realised this underlying danger and never journeyed to Beirut during his 30-year presidency. He travelled to Lebanon once, meeting with former President Sulaiman Frajiyyieh in the sleepy town of Shtaura near the Syrian border. The last Syrian President to visit Beirut was the late Shukri al-Quwatli, who journeyed in 1956 - ironically, for a high profile Arab summit that ended in failure.

In addition to the hanging civil war disputes, the Arabs face other petty rivalries that are surely to disrupt the upcoming conference. Apparently, the Gulf War shadow still looms over the entire Arab world, and Kuwait still holds a grudge against Yasser Arafat, who hurried to support Iraq's 1990 invasion. Kuwaiti Sheikh Jaber Ahmad Al Sabah will definitely refuse to meet him, just like he declared earlier last year that the PA President was "not welcome" on Kuwaiti territory.

By default, the same grudge still holds with Iraqi President Saddam Hussain. King Fahd, unable to forget that the Iraqi leader blitzed his capital with Scud missiles 11 years ago, will also refuse to meet Saddam. Even President Bashar al-Assad might have second thoughts about meeting with Saddam. Earlier last week, Damascus hosted a meeting between Iraqi opposition elements and senior Iranian officials, aimed at discussing post-Saddam Iraq.

Although economic relations between Iraq and Syria have improved in recent years, both continue to harbour one another's opposition and are declared archenemies. The hostility created between Assad and Hussain in 1980 has apparently, not yet been hammered out to the satisfaction of both sides.

Arafat, if allowed to attend by Israel, will be the summit's shinning star. He is reportedly upset with the entire Arab order for failing to act effectively in his favour since the Israelis placed him under house arrest last December.

He faces the dilemma of meeting with Bashar, who refused to receive him in Damascus in October 2001 for "political reasons." He holds a current grudge against Jordanian King Abdullah II for the latter's failure to send a Jordanian peacekeeping force to protect the Palestinians against Ariel Sharon's onslaught.

Arafat's icy relations with Syria date back to the era of the late Hafez Al Assad, who broke off contact with the PLO Chairman in 1983 and tried in vain to have him assassinated or toppled during the Lebanese Civil War.

The grudge, apparently, has carried down from father to son, and although declaring their intention of turning a new page with Arafat during the last Arab conference in Amman, the Syrians have been unable