Tightrope walk for Mamata

Politics for Mamata Banerjee of Trinamool Congress probably has never been such a tightrope walk. Even as the NDA government at the Centre goes to face a trial of strength in parliament tomorrow, Banerjee emphatically anno-unced that Trinamool Congress would vote in favour of the Vajpayee Government.

Political analysts say Mamata Banerjee has little option left other than supporting Vajpayee. Fully aware that her stand on Gujarat so far has been inconsistent, she took great pains to explain her party's stand.

Before leaving for Delhi recently, she said: "it is easy to bring down a government, but it is extremely difficult to install a new one. We have experienced that thrice earlier," Banerjee said.

"If that is her explanation for supporting the NDA, it should not make the BJP leadership and particularly Vajpayee too happy. It's the fear of a political vacuum that forces her to stand by the NDA. The statement can be taken the as the least approval of the measures taken by the Vajpayee government so far in Gujarat," say the analysts.

Banerjee's flip flop on Gujarat is dictated by political compulsions back home. For the record, she first demanded the removal of the Modi government in Gujarat, claiming proudly that it was on the basis of a Trinamool Congress delegation report following a visit to the affected region that Vajpayee censured Narendra Modi asking him to adhere to "Rajdharma."

But as Vajpayee changed his stance, so did Mamata Banerjee. She demanded that President's rule be imposed in Gujarat and relief and rehabilitation work carried out first before the state goes to the polls.

Her alliance with the NDA government at the centre, particularly after the riots in Gujarat might prove politically costly.

In West Bengal, the nearly 30% Muslim population is a crucial factor to be taken into account for any political combination to survive and to make a match out of any contest. The spectre of losing ground rapidly among its Muslim followers, therefore looms large.

But she has little option now as her stepping out of the NDA alliance would further reduce her credibility. One political analyst said:" She has enacted the resignation drama so many times that the weapon has lost its edge."

In fact the waning Mamata magic was evident when she called a 'mahamichil '( a mega rally) just before her departure to Delhi last week. The 'mahamichil' (mega rally) proved almost a flop. The turnout was low and non-participation of the Muslim community was even more pronounced.

The rally was called by her to protest what she termed as 'state sponsored terrorism' in Bengal. She blasted Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharya and the Marxists for killing at least 350 Trinamool Congress supporters since the assembly elections last May.

"I have the names, the addresses of each of those killed. The Marxists have painted the rural Bengal red with the blood of our cadres and that is their true face," she thundered.

She also refereed to recent media projection of the Trinamool Congress party heading towards disintegration. "Some vested circles are saying MamatamBanerjee is finished. Trinamool Congress is dead. But that's a mistake they are doing," Banerjee said promising to take on the misrule of the Marxists as she always did. She announced a two-month long programme to agitate against the government.

Notwithstanding such rhetoric and her determination to continue the fight her position politically in the national perspective as well as in the context of Bengal has never been so miserable.

Buddhadeb Bhattacharya continues to capture the imagination of a large section of the urban middle class who were disillusioned with the left during Jyoti Basu's rule. A majority of the urban and semi-urban middle class, who largely formed Mamata Banerjee's support base have turned to him, not so much for leftist ideology but simply because of Bhattacharya's charisma.

A culturally inclined chief minister - who scripts dramas for the stage, recites poems on public appearances and rushes to victims of crimes or disaster - seemed to have caught the fancy of the Bengali middle class psyche. Bhattacharya now address the same constituency over which Mamata Banerjee had an overwhelming sway.

The Congress on the other hand, particularly Sonia Gandhi is keen to get Mamata Banerjee back into the Congress fold and feelers were sent when 12 Congress chief ministers held a conclave at Guwahati in Assam recently.

But Banerjee summarily rejected the offer saying: "Congress has betrayed me in the last assembly polls. They are the best friends of the Marxists. I will never ride with them again." So the chips are really down with Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress.

The only positive development she can look forward to is a ministerial berth in the central cabinet - a reward her party supporters and insiders hope will come their way. For a politician, once used to calling the shots, a cabinet post is all she can now hope for.