Sharifs still a factor in Pakistani politics

The establishment and the Jamali government's post-election negotiating flexibility towards all politicians ranging from the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal to the Benazir-led Pakistan Poeple's Party (PPP) have also raised questions about the fate of the Sharif brothers.

Since end of 2000, Pakistan's former prime minister Nawaz Sharif and the Punjab's former chief minister Shahbaz Sharif have lived in voluntary exile in Saudi Arabia. The strength of Nawaz Sharif's Muslim League(N) has been reduced to mere 17; crashing down from the 200 seats the party occupied when in October 1999 the reluctant coup maker General Parvez Musharraf took over. Neverth-eless factors including the present hung parliament, the prime minister's one-vote victory and the Sharifs' political ambition combined with deliberate lack of antagonism towards the establishment especially of Shahbaz Sharif, are all factors that indicate that the Sharifs political innings are not over yet. The present deep political antagonism between the king-makers of the anti-Nawaz League and the Sharifs notwithstanding. The hallmark of Pakistani power play is after all the alliances and animosities that rest in its shifting sands.

And this, despite the intense speculation in the press there has been no post-election contact between the Sharifs and the establishment. The closest that the establishment came to offering a 'package deal' to the Sharifs was in the pre-election phase. Then the Editor-in-Chief of the Nawa-i-Waqt Group of newspapers Majeed Nizami landed in Jeddah.

Package

The package he brought with him reportedly contained the following elements; one, the Sharifs should support reunification of the two Pakistan Muslim Leagues - PML(Nawaz) and PML(Quiad-e-Azam); either Raja Zafar-ul Haq or Illahi Buksh Somroo should become President of the unified League; Shahbaz Sharif would be allowed to return to Pakistan only six months after the election; Nawaz Sharif would not return for the foreseeable future.

Less savoury messages reportedly from the establishment included Nawaz Sharif being told that General Musharraf considered him his number one enemy and that he should go off to the United States and "eat hamburgers."

On the subject of Shahbaz Sharif's return Musharraf reportedly said that while personally he would not mind him returning early but his colleagues may not find it acceptable. Apparently in response to the comment that many would ridicule the establishment if Shahbaz would return early, using the same logic Sharifs maintained that if a Sharifs-establishment deal was cut with none of the Sharifs allowed to return their supporters would ridicule them.

Indirect contacts

At present the Sharifs have had only indirect contacts in the Pakistani power scene.

Around 10 days ago the current President of the PML(Q) indirectly communicated with Shahbaz Sharif. Mian Azhar sat next to an Islamabad-based journalist while he conveyed his very preliminary offer for rapprochement to the man at the other end - Shahbaz Sharif. In fact according to Sharif family sources, Shahbaz Sharif discouraged the 'facilitator' journalist from handing over the phone to Mian Azhar. Shahbaz was avoiding direct contact with Mian Azhar. Meanwhile, having passed on the rapprochement message to his older brother Nawaz Sharif, Shahbaz has reportedly suggested direct contact between 'rapprochement advocates' and the former prime minister.

Mian Azhar, who lost the MNA elections, had pegged his anger on the appointment by Mir Zafarullah Jamali of Salim Saifullah as the PML(Q)'s new secretary-general. He had sensed growing resentment within the PML(Q) ranks. Elected parliamentarians hoping to get cabinet slots had questioned the wisdom of giving cabinet slots to defectors from other parties. The issue of power and purse strings passed down to the district governments had also got parliamentarians riled up. Having been defeated at the polls a 'de-powered' Azhar was positioning himself as the leader of the disgruntled group within the PML(Q). In the Sharifs, he was seeking an ally.

However, with the recent developments within the PML(Q) further contact with the 'rapprochement-advocates' is unlikely. The PML(Q) king-makers, the Chaudaries, moved in rapidly to crush this Azhar-authored rebellion plan. A vote of no-confidence against Mian Azhar was organised and moved. For the disgruntled parliamentarians Rs5 million each have been reportedly been allocated for development work in their respective constituencies. Control of some cash combine with some authority over the line departments responsible for development activities, is likely to blunt any emerging 'rebellious' zeal.

Azhar, the already comprehensively marginalised president of PML(Q) is set to be removed from the president's post. Chaudary Shujaat is likely to succeed him. For the Sharifs, who have shown no proclivity for attacking the establishment in the Benazir style, a 'black-sheep' with the establishment Mian Azhar, can no longer be a potential partner.

Another issue of the Sharifs mobility will also significantly affect their future in Pakistani politics. Unwilling to serve prison sentences, having opted for a deal, with the Musharraf government and in November 2000 the entire family departed for Saudi Arabia. Shahbaz Sharif was the only reluctant partner in the deal. Since the establishment had made it clear that it was an 'all or nothing' deal his refusal to leave would have prevented others including his aging father's departure from the country.

The exact deal under which the Sharifs left the country will never be known. Despite all the propaganda they apparently sought exit from imprisonment not under any written agreement. Apparently the Saudis were the guarantors of the deal between Musharraf and the Sharifs. Musharraf delivered the Sharifs. The Sharifs had to deliver on their pledge of 'no political activity and no departure from the Saudi kingdom.' And by and large they did.

The Sharifs are now contemplating moves to seek their host's 'blessings' to travel outside the kingdom. Reportedly they had to observe a ban on travelling outside of Saudi Arabia only for a two-year period. However ban on their travel to Pakistan can only be lifted by the Musharraf government.

Mere kite-flying

Sharif is expected to approach their Saudi hosts for permission to travel abroad. Media reports indicating that the Sharifs will be arriving in London shortly are dismissed by the Sharifs as "mere kite-flying." Though not completely unfounded, all this is premature speculation.

The key issue for the Sharifs political future in Pakistani politics will be their ability to return to Pakistan. Currently they are not allowed to travel to Pakistan. There is apparently no legal ban on them to travel to Pakistan. Only an unwritten understanding between the Saudis - the Musharraf government and the Sharifs. Therefore when without clearance from the Musharraf government Shahbaz's wife arrived, earlier in the year, on a 'test' visit to Pakistan she was forcibly sent back.

In the post election phase space for realignments and re-entries is expanding; the once 'nabbed' men are sitting in the cabinet; the long-imprisoned are being